WATCH LIVE: Fed Governor Waller to speak at 13:30BST/13:30EDT

Waller has historically been among the more market-moving voices on the Board because his speeches have tended to frame the reaction function explicitly, and he has on prior occasions used set-piece remarks to front-run shifts in the consensus on the timing and pace of rate changes. The distinction that matters is whether the speech is on the economic outlook and policy, where the front end has typically repriced on his wording around inflation persistence and labour data thresholds, or a technical topic such as payments or the balance sheet, which has tended to pass with little rate market response. With a midday London slot, any move would land in thin early US liquidity, which has on past occasions exaggerated the initial rates reaction before it was retraced or extended on confirmation from peers. The follow-on tells are the published text versus delivery, whether other officials echo the framing in subsequent days, and how the remarks sit against the most recent inflation and payroll prints.