[WATCH LIVE] US President Trump to speak

The pattern with this President is that prepared text and off-script remarks carry different weights, and it has generally been the ad-libbed portions, on trade, on the Fed Chair, on specific companies, that have moved the dollar, front-end rates and equity futures. Prior form is that the wire headline alone underprices the tail: remarks billed as routine have on previous occasions delivered policy with immediate implementation dates, which is what separates these events from ordinary political speech. The tells are whether trade, tariffs, the Fed or a named country or company feature early, and whether anything carries an effective date rather than aspirational language. Absent concrete policy, past episodes of this kind have tended to fade quickly; with it, the follow-on is typically the official text or executive order, which arrives after the tape has already repriced.