Week in Focus 12-16th October 2026: US CPI, US Retail Sales, Start of Q3 Earnings, China CPI, UK jobs, RBA Minutes and Aussie jobs

• MON: Holiday: Canadian Thanksgiving
• TUE: RBA Minutes (Sep), OPEC MOMR, US Bank Earnings, Japanese PPI (Sep), German CPI Final (Sep)
• WED: US Treasury Buyback Announcement (Liquidity Support; 10Y-20Y), IEA OMR, Fed Beige Book (Oct), Chinese CPI (Sep), German Wholesale Prices (Sep), Swedish Final CPI (Sep), Spanish Final CPI (Sep), US CPI (Sep)
• THU: Australian Jobs (Sep), UK GDP (Aug), French Final CPI (Sep), EZ Industrial Production (Aug), US PPI (Sep), US Retail Sales (Sep), US Philly Fed Index (Oct)
• FRI: EZ Final CPI (Sep), Italian Final CPI (Sep), US Export/Import Prices (Sep), US Industrial Production (Sep)

RBA MINUTES (TUE): The RBA will release the minutes from its 18th-19th September meeting next week, at which the central bank raised rates by 25bps to 4.60%, as expected, in a unanimous decision. The accompanying statement maintained a hawkish tone, noting that inflation remains elevated and some of the upside risks identified in August are materialising. The Board reiterated that it would take whatever action it considers necessary to return inflation sustainably to target, including raising the cash rate target further if required. The RBA stated that the conflict in the Middle East has widened, pushing global energy prices significantly above levels assumed in the August forecast, while recent inflation outcomes in Australia were stronger than anticipated at the previous meeting. Furthermore, it acknowledged that the three previous increases in the cash rate target since the start of the year have tightened financial conditions and that the economy appears to be losing momentum. However, it added that inflation remains too high and the Board judged that, given recent developments, further tightening in financial conditions is warranted to support a return of inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe. At the press conference, RBA Governor Bullock struck a more dovish-than-usual tone. Although she stated that inflationary pressures would persist for longer than expected and that the Board would raise rates again if needed, she also noted that further hikes may not be necessary if inflation declines and expressed hope that the four rate hikes already delivered would be sufficiently restrictive to slow inflation.

US Q3 EARNINGS SEASON (TUE): Analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of +29.5% Y/Y in Q3 (vs +26.7% Y/Y in Q2), according to FactSet; that would mark a third straight quarter above 25% growth. Revenue growth is forecast to rise 12.3% Y/Y. Net profit margins are estimated at around 15.0%, which would be the second-highest level since 2009. In terms of the early reporters, 14 of 16 have beaten on EPS. FactSet says estimates have moved against the usual pattern: the bottom-up Q3 EPS estimate rose 1.4% during the quarter, vs an average five-year decline of 2.2%. It says that a record 72 companies have issued positive EPS guidance, 44 of which are in the tech sector. Analysts’ revisions were uneven: Energy (+18.0%) and Information Technology (+3.5%) led the upgrades, while eight sectors saw cuts, led by Materials (-10.2%), Consumer Staples (-4.0%) and Health Care (-3.3%). By sector, there will be focus on energy, which is seen as one of the leaders as oil prices rose sharply during the quarter, which analysts suggest will help the sector’s profits rise a massive +114.0% Y/Y. Tech is also expected to be a top performer, with profits seen rising +65.0% Y/Y, though when removing semiconductor names, profits are seen rising 24.4% Y/Y. Communication Services profit growth is expected to rise by 51.5% Y/Y, but just 12.0% when removing Meta (META) and EchoStar (ECHO). Weakness could be seen in Materials where profit estimates have been cut to 29.4% (from 42.1%), while Consumer Staples is expected to see profits rise by just 2.9%, and Healthcare is expected to see a rise of 5.5%. Financials will kick off earnings next week; with JPMorgan (JPM), Goldman Sachs (GS), Citigroup (C), and Wells Fargo (WFC) due Tuesday, and Morgan Stanley (MS) and Bank of America (BAC) on Wednesday. For the sector as a whole, earnings are seen rising 3.0% Y/Y (vs 1.3% in Q2); FactSet notes that JPMorgan is the biggest contributor to upgrades in the sector (EPS estimate has been raised to USD 5.90 vs USD 5.49), while Robinhood, Progressive and Allstate have each seen estimates rise more than 10%. Lagging, Coinbase (COIN) and Goldman Sachs (GS) are among the largest downward EPS revisions. Financials revenue growth is seen at +7.3% Y/Y, with net margins seen at 19.7% (vs 20.5% in Q3 2025), the biggest Y/Y margin decline of any sector.

US TREASURY BUYBACK 10Y-20Y ANNOUNCEMENT (WED): The Treasury will announce the maximum amount it intends to purchase in 10-20-year nominal coupons on Wednesday, ahead of Thursday's operation, with the final purchase amount to be confirmed following the buyback. The Treasury currently guides to a maximum purchase amount of at least USD 4bln. All operations in this maturity bucket so far have been sized at USD 6bln, suggesting a similar amount could be announced this time. At the previous 10-20-year buyback, the Treasury purchased the maximum USD 6bln from USD 46.39bln in submitted offers, although purchases were concentrated in just two of the 41 eligible securities. This suggests the Treasury found sufficient economically attractive offers in a small number of securities to utilise its full purchase capacity, despite the much larger overall volume of offers submitted.

CHINESE CPI / PPI (WED): Chinese CPI is expected to rise to around 0.9-1.0% Y/Y in September (prev. 0.8%), while PPI is seen unchanged at 3.8%. Headline inflation is expected to remain supported by higher energy costs, although underlying consumer price pressures remain subdued amid weak household demand and persistent property-sector weakness. The divergence between elevated factory-gate costs and limited pass-through to consumers remains a key theme, with a weaker-than-expected CPI reading likely to reinforce calls for further policy support from Beijing.

US CPI (WED), PPI (THU): Analysts expect US headline CPI to rise +0.6% M/M in September (prev. 0.4%), with the annual rate rising to 3.6% Y/Y (prev. 3.4%). The core measure is seen rising +0.2% M/M (prev. 0.3%), cooling from August’s rate, which was the fastest pace in four months, driving the Fed to fire its first rate hike since 2023; the annual core rate is seen nudging up to 2.5% Y/Y (prev. 2.4%). US PPI is expected to rise by 0.5% M/M (prev. 0.4%), though the annual rate of headline PPI is seen slipping to 5.3% Y/Y (prev. 5.4%). FOMC meeting minutes this week showed that policymakers unanimously supported September’s hike amid persistent inflation. However, following weak jobs data, officials have since cooled on the prospects of an October rate rise; the jobs data saw October implied pricing diminish to around 20% vs 70% prior to the release. In recent days, influential Fed members Jefferson, Williams, Waller and Bowman (all voters) have all alluded to an October pause. Jefferson and Williams said the Fed has time to assess the economy before hiking again; Waller expects more hikes will be needed to get inflation back to 2%, but said that they do not need to occur at consecutive meetings; while Bowman sees little urgency to move rates again. Given that the Fed has expressed a willingness to set policy based on incoming data, market pricing for both October and December could be sensitive to the September inflation report.

AUSTRALIAN JOBS (THU): Employment is expected to rise by 20k in September (prev. +39.5k), with the Unemployment Rate seen unchanged at 4.6% and the Participation Rate expected to ease to 67.0% (prev. 67.1%). Westpac notes that employment growth has improved in recent months but remains below both its long-run average and working-age population growth, while labour supply continues to outpace demand. As such, the labour market is expected to cool gradually, with Westpac also forecasting unemployment at 4.6%. A stronger-than-expected report would reinforce the RBA's higher-for-longer stance, while a rise in unemployment would provide clearer evidence of building labour-market slack.

UK GDP (THU): Growth data has been relatively strong, with June and July printing at 0.4% M/M, after an upward revision to June. However, August is expected to show a correction to this, with a -0.3% or -0.4% M/M print forecast, weighed on by services in particular. Nonetheless, the economy remains robust enough that it will not stand in the way of the BoE tightening in at least one of the last two meetings in 2026.

US RETAIL SALES (THU): Retail sales are expected to rise +0.3% M/M in September (prev. 1.1%), with the Control Group also seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 1.2%). The Chicago Fed's Advance Retail Trade Summary projects retail and food services sales (ex-autos) rising 0.4% M/M on a seasonally adjusted basis, but falling 0.7% when adjusted for inflation. (NOTE: US retail sales are reported on a seasonally adjusted basis, but are not adjusted for inflation). Analysts at Continuum Economics say weekly data from the RedBook suggests some loss of momentum in September, after an acceleration in August. And on energy prices, Continuum notes that weakness in consumer confidence data is not a reliable guide to sales, but it does suggest that gasoline prices are causing some consumer concerns. The Bank of America Consumer Checkpoint Survey saw solid spending across many categories and a strong start to the holidays. It found the aggregated credit and debit card spending per household rose 6.2% Y/Y, or 5.1% excluding gasoline, both the third strongest growth rates over the past four years. Meanwhile, M/M spending was more muted, especially without gas. It highlights that consumer spending remained very solid in September.

BRAZIL ELECTION (SUN): Senator Flávio Bolsonaro led Brazil's first-round presidential election with 47.03% of the vote, ahead of incumbent President Lula da Silva's 45.16%, setting up a run-off on October 25th. Bolsonaro's Liberal Party also performed strongly in congressional and regional elections, with his campaign focusing on crime, corruption, the economy and sovereignty, alongside closer ties with the US. Meanwhile, Lula has defended his state-led social and industrial policies. Bloomberg reported that a new AtlasIntel poll showed Bolsonaro at 53% versus Lula at 47% of valid votes ahead of the run-off. Brazilian assets rallied and the BRL strengthened following the first-round results, with investors seemingly anticipating that a Bolsonaro administration could pursue greater fiscal discipline, potentially easing concerns over Brazil's deteriorating fiscal position and creating scope for lower interest rates over time.

OPEC+ MEETING REVIEW: OPEC+ maintained November production targets, marking a second consecutive month without further output increases after completing the rollback of its voluntary cuts in September. Actual production remains below quotas amid ongoing Middle East conflict and export disruptions, keeping physical supply tight. Meanwhile, the production capacity assessment needed to determine 2027 quotas has been delayed until mid-November. The seven producers are due to meet again on 1st November.

US ISM SERVICES (MON): The ISM Services PMI report was mixed. The headline fell to 54.9 in September from 55.4 in August, slightly below the 55.0 forecast but above the 54.1 twelve-month average. Business Activity dropped to 56.5 from 61.7, while New Orders also fell to 56.5 from 61.7, weighing on the headline print. On inflation and employment, the Prices Index rose to 74.0 from 72.6, above the 73.3 forecast, while Employment returned to expansionary territory after two months of contraction, rising to 50.1 from 47.8 and above the 48.8 forecast. Meanwhile, thirteen industries reported growth, one more than in August, while four reported contraction, one fewer than the prior month. The report noted that tariff and fuel-cost impacts were the most cited issues affecting supply chains, with fuel costs mentioned twice as often as any other single issue, while supply-chain constraints were also a key concern. Pantheon Macroeconomics highlights that the report suggests activity in the services sector is rising at no more than a moderate pace and points to less momentum in services activity than indicated by the S&P Global Services PMI. The upside in employment is encouraging, particularly after the weak September NFP report, but the upside in prices remains a clear concern for the Fed.

FOMC MINUTES (WED): FOMC: The minutes revealed that all members - even the non-voters - supported the 25bps rate hike in September, and most assessed another would likely be appropriate by year-end. Participants generally emphasised inflation remained elevated, while the job market appeared near full employment. Participants generally saw inflation risks skewed to the upside, with some seeing those risks becoming more skewed in recent months. Job market risks were broadly balanced. Some participants saw AI buildout possibly causing aggregate demand to outpace supply over the medium term, putting upward pressure on inflation. Regarding Treasury yields, many noted that despite the recent climb in long-term Treasury yields, financial conditions appeared supportive of economic growth. Meanwhile, a few observed that the Treasury market had been functioning smoothly but noted the importance of planning for market stress. Within the development in Financial Markets section, the minutes noted that changes in real rates contributed to most of the net increase in longer-maturity Treasury yields. Part of the increase reflected the higher expected path of monetary policy and the strength of economic data. Market commentary pointed to geopolitical developments, uncertainty related to the US Treasury's announcement and implementation of the buyback program, and competition for capital from heavy private debt issuance to finance the development of AI infrastructure as also contributing to higher term premiums and Treasury yields. Meanwhile, regarding Japanese intervention, it acknowledged that the desk, acting purely as fiscal agent for the U.S. Treasury, intervened in the currency market using U.S. Treasury funds; the System Open Market Account portfolio was not involved.  

RBI (WED): The RBI raised the repo rate by 25bps to 5.50%, as expected, marking its first rate increase since early 2023, with the decision unanimous. The central bank also shifted its policy stance from neutral to "calibrated tightening", with four of the six MPC members supporting the change, while raising the Standing Deposit Facility Rate to 5.25% and both the Marginal Standing Facility Rate and Bank Rate to 5.75%. Governor Malhotra said the move reflected a more challenging inflation outlook amid renewed geopolitical tensions and higher crude oil prices, despite domestic growth remaining broad-based. Malhotra also stated that rate cuts are off the table for now, suggesting the central bank is likely to either keep rates unchanged or tighten further if inflationary pressures persist. Meanwhile, the RBI raised its FY27 inflation forecast to 5.2% from 5.0% and its real GDP growth forecast to 7.1% from 6.7%.

SWEDISH CPIF (WED): Headline CPIF inflation came in at 1.5%, in line with the Riksbank's forecast, while Core CPIF Y/Y printed at 0.5%, below the Bank's 0.7% projection. As a reminder, the Riksbank adopted a hawkish stance at its September meeting, noting that it expects rate hikes to begin this year. The report points to further progress on inflation, although price pressures remain elevated. As such, the report is unlikely to deter policymakers from delivering rate hikes later this year. Following the release, both SEB and Nordea reiterated their calls for a November hike.

ECB MINUTES (THU): As expected, the minutes had a clear hawkish tilt given the hike that was delivered in September, in a unanimous decision. Further, and again in-line with consensus, the minutes provided no concrete signal for upcoming meetings, with the bar to action still very much data dependent. However, within the minutes, the tone was not quite as hawkish as pricing indicates, with signs of second round effects still not emerging to any significant degree, and yield movements doing some of the ECB’s work for it. Nonetheless, the path remains to further tightening.

UK HOLBORN & ST PANCRAS PARLIAMENTARY BY-ELECTION (THU): Labour’s Abdi-Wali secured 45% of the vote, with the Greens in second place on 33%. A strong victory for Labour, though the Greens essentially tripled their votes. As expected, no market reaction to the result. However, the Labour victory means PM Burnham has successfully navigated one of the near term challenges to an early election. The next, and main test, is the Autumn Budget on October 28th.

NORWEGIAN CPI (FRI): Norwegian inflation came in slightly below expectations across both headline and core measures, although most readings rose from the previous month. Headline CPI M/M increased to 0.5% (prev. -0.3%), while Y/Y edged up to 3.4% (prev. 3.3%). The closely watched CPI-ATE M/M rose to 0.2% (prev. -0.5%), while Y/Y held steady at 3%, remaining 0.1 percentage points above Norges Bank's forecast. Inflation has remained above the Bank's target for some time, prompting policymakers to deliver a 25bps hike in September and signal a roughly 40% chance of another hike over the next six months. Overall, the report is unlikely to materially alter the near-term policy outlook, although persistently elevated inflation into year-end could prompt another hike early next year. As it stands, SEB believes the Bank has reached its terminal rate but sees upside risks to that view.

CANADIAN JOBS REPORT (FRI): The Canadian jobs report was notably weak, with employment declining by 68.3k, well below the expected 7k increase. Full-time employment fell by 35k (prev. -36k), while part-time employment declined by 33k (prev. -6k). The unemployment rate rose to 6.5% from 6.4%, in line with expectations. Overall, the report highlights further deterioration in the Canadian labour market and adds to concerns over the growth outlook, particularly as the ongoing trade conflict with the US continues to weigh on economic prospects. The weakness strengthens the case for a more accommodative BoC policy stance, although elevated inflation risks stemming from the US/Iran conflict in the Middle East complicate the outlook. As such, the report could reinforce expectations for the BoC to refrain from tightening the policy rate from the lower estimate of the neutral range.