[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses supported by lower energy prices as earnings season gets underway next week

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses supported by lower energy prices as earnings season gets underway next week

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  • European bourses began the final trading session of the week entirely in the green. The downside in energy prices is helping support the equity space, after US President Trump refuted reports that the US will not strike Iran before the midterms. Markets will be waiting for next week, when earnings start flowing through, with ASML the European highlight.
  • Ahead of ASML's earnings, BofA analysts forecast revenue and EPS growing more than previously thought due to higher pricing and growing units of its semiconductor-making machines. The firm lifted its 2028 revenue and EPS expectations, with focus on guidance.
  • Sectors highlight the positive bias. Basic Resources top the sector pile, with Retail and Financial Services rounding out the sector gainers. On the other hand, Telecoms is the clear laggard, followed by Energy. The driver behind the underperformance in Telecoms comes following SpaceX's USD 8bln acquisition of Grain Management’s 800 MHz spectrum portfolio. This purchase would move Starlink closer to mounting a direct challenge to legacy wireless companies. Deutsche Telekom shares are falling by nearly 8%, while US peers are also under pressure premarket (AT&T -7.9%, Verizon -7.4%).
  • Key movers include: Hexagon +3.6%, acquires Rocscience for USD 535mln; Salzgitter +10.9%, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; ArcelorMittal +4.9%, upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS; Rheinmetall -1.0%, downgraded to Hold from Buy at Berenberg.
  • US equity futures follow their European peers higher. Sticking with the earnings theme, FactSet estimates that analysts expect S&P 500 earnings growth of +29.5% Y/Y in Q3 (vs +26.7% Y/Y in Q2), marking a third straight quarter above 25% growth.

Context

Wraps of this kind compress several distinct stories, and they behave differently. The energy-linked equity support is a well-worn inverse correlation: falling crude has historically eased the input-cost and inflation impulse that pressures multiples, with the benefit concentrated in energy-intensive sectors and the mirror image visible in the Energy sector itself, which here lags. The telecom selloff is the more idiosyncratic leg; spectrum acquisitions by satellite operators challenging legacy wireless economics have tended to produce sharp single-day de-ratings in incumbents, with the read-across crossing the Atlantic to US peers, and the follow-on worth noting is whether the move consolidates or retraces once the strategic threat is sized rather than merely announced. On earnings season, the established sequence is that early reporters set the tone for revisions breadth, and guidance has mattered more than the prints themselves in high-expectation quarters; elevated consensus growth estimates raise the bar for beats to generate positive reactions, a pattern where in-line results have been sold. Single-stock rating moves in steel and defence reflect the usual rotation logic rather than new information. As a session wrap rather than a discrete event, the note carries positioning colour more than fresh signal.

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