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World Gold Council base case sees gold trading near USD 4,100/oz this year

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World Gold Council base case sees gold trading near USD 4,100/oz this year

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  • The World Gold Council says its benchmark scenario and market consensus imply the Fed will hike at least once in 2026, most likely in October, while the Bank of England, Bank of Japan and ECB are expected to tighten and U.S. Q2 inflation should peak near 3.9%. 
  • Under those assumptions, gold is likely to trade around $4,100/oz this year with roughly ±5% volatility. 
  • Upside would come from worsening geopolitical or economic conditions or a shift in rate expectations, though a sustained breakout would likely require a sufficiently strong global slowdown. 
  • Downside risks are a stronger dollar, larger-than-expected rate hikes and a return to risk-on sentiment; prolonged trading below USD 4,000/oz could spur further selling, while declines exceeding 10% historically tend to attract buy-the-dip demand from long-term regional investors. 

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