Yemeni Houthi Spokesperson says an important statement from the Yemeni Armed Forces on military operations inside Saudi Arabia will be released at 14:40 local time (12:40BST/07:40EDT)

The relevant distinction for crude is between claims that touch energy infrastructure and those confined to military or border targets. Episodes that have reached production, processing, or export facilities have tended to price a geopolitical premium into the front of the oil curve and, in shipping-linked episodes, into freight and insurance rates; claims limited to intercepted projectiles or military sites have tended to fade within the session. Saudi air defence interception rates have historically determined whether such claims translate into physical disruption, and the group's track record includes both confirmed hits on major facilities and claims that were exaggerated or unverified. Worth noting is the timing against the broader backdrop of Houthi-Saudi engagement, which has alternated between de-escalation phases and renewed operations, and the statement's content on targets and claimed damage will be the tell. Until the statement lands and any independent confirmation follows, this is headline risk rather than supply risk.