ASML (ASML NA) Q3 2026 (EUR): Basic EPS 12.95 (exp. 10.68), Revenue 11.7bln (exp. 11.58bln). Guides Q4 revenue between 14.2-15.2bln (exp. 14bln) and FY26 revenue between 14.2-15.2bln (exp. 14.2bln)

ASML results of this shape, an EPS beat driven by margin rather than volume, sit in the familiar pattern for the stock: the top line tracks a narrow range because systems revenue is largely contracted, so the swing factor quarter to quarter is mix between EUV and DUV shipments and the installed-base services line, which is what carries gross margin. A step up in systems sold alongside a several-point margin expansion points to richer EUV mix rather than cost actions, the historically more durable kind of beat for this name. The guidance framing, with a Q4 range whose midpoint sits above consensus and a stated full-year band, is where the repricing risk concentrates; ASML has a track record of conservative guidance early in the year that tightens toward the upper end, so the credibility of the band matters more than the beat. The figures worth tracking on the call are the bookings number and its split, which have historically been the leading tell for the following year's revenue, plus any commentary on China mix given the recurring export-control overhang that has capped the multiple in past episodes. Peers in the cap-equipment complex have tended to trade sympathetically on ASML prints, with the read-through running through the order book rather than the quarter itself.