BCB Director David says the neutral rate was probably higher at a given point

Remarks about where the neutral rate sat at a given point in the past are analytical rather than directional, and episodes of this kind have typically mattered only insofar as they inform where the current cycle's terminal or resting rate might lie, since a higher assessed neutral implies more room to cut before policy stops being restrictive, or less restriction at prevailing levels. The distinction worth drawing is between a retrospective observation about a prior period and an updated view on the neutral rate today: the former is colour for the record, the latter moves the pricing of the Selic path at the belly and back of the DI curve. BCB board commentary has historically been read for consistency with the Copom's published minutes and inflation forecasts, and a single director's framing has tended to carry less weight than the board's collective signalling, with the median rather than the tails setting the path. Worth watching is whether other directors or the Governor echo the framing, and how it sits against the inflation expectations channel that has driven BCB reaction functions in past cycles. As commentary anchored to the past rather than the present, the signal is weak and context-setting rather than repricing.