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BofA weekly flow data shows USD 56.2bln into stocks, USD 15.4bln into bonds, USD 3.4bln into cash, USD 0.5bln out of crypto, USD 1.7bln out of gold

Newsquawk Staff ·

  • BULL & BEAR: BofA's Bull & Bear Indicator fell to 7.1 (from 7.2), a Neutral signal. BofA says the decline came from weakening global stock index breadth and wider spreads in HY and subordinated bank debt, partly offset by strong equity inflows. By component, equity flows and FMS positioning are very bullish, while global stock index breadth is bearish.
  • EQUITIES: Global stocks drew USD 56.2bln (USD 75.9bln to ETFs, USD 19.6bln out of mutual funds). US equities saw a fourth straight week of inflows at USD 14.9bln. Japan drew USD 6.8bln for a third straight week, its biggest inflow since May 2013. Europe posted a third straight week of outflows at USD 2.3bln, its biggest since July 2026. EM equities drew USD 30.6bln for a fifth straight week, with China drawing USD 25.7bln, its biggest inflow since April 2025. By style, US large cap drew USD 11.9bln and US small cap USD 0.7bln, while US value saw outflows of USD 1.5bln and US growth USD 1.3bln.
  • SECTORS: Tech drew USD 5.3bln, its fifth straight week of inflows. Financials drew USD 0.8bln and Healthcare USD 0.7bln. Materials saw the largest outflow at USD 1.2bln, its biggest since July 2026. Utilities followed at USD 0.5bln, then Consumer at USD 0.3bln, and REITs at USD 0.3bln.
  • FIXED INCOME: IG bonds saw a sixth straight week of inflows at USD 5.0bln. HY bonds drew USD 1.8bln, their first inflow in five weeks. EM debt drew USD 4.0bln for a thirteenth straight week. Munis drew USD 2.6bln for a twenty-eighth straight week. Government/Treasuries drew USD 1.2bln for an eighteenth straight week, the smallest inflow since June 2026. TIPS drew USD 1.1bln for a thirty-ninth straight week, the biggest since June 2026.
  • POSITIONING: BofA private clients' AUM stood at USD 4.6tln. Equity allocation was 66.0%, bonds 17.5% and cash 9.4%. Private clients posted their second-highest weekly equity inflow ever, driven by IPO proceeds. GWIM equity ETF share count was up 0.3% over the past week and 8.6% YTD. In ETFs over the past four weeks, private clients bought munis, industrials and healthcare while selling staples, EM debt and consumer discretionary.
  • TRADING VIEW: Regarding the US midterms, BofA says a Democratic sweep is being priced in, but a Democratic wave and a jump in bond yields are not. Either way, voters want "affordability," which BofA says is negative for tech, bank and energy monopolies in 2027 and positive for consumer discretionary.

What it means

This is the weekly BofA flow and positioning note, a fixture of the Friday calendar that desks treat as a sentiment and positioning ledger rather than a catalyst in its own right. The internal tension is the familiar one: headline flows and private client allocation sit at the bullish end of their historical ranges while breadth and credit spreads are deteriorating, and in past episodes of this kind it is the breadth and HY components that have tended to resolve the divergence, with euphoric inflows near cycle highs more often marking late-stage positioning than initiating new legs. The mutual fund outflow against heavy ETF buying continues the structural passive rotation that has run for years and flatters aggregate equity flow readings. The China and Japan inflow streaks are the more informative signal, since sustained reallocations of that size have historically tracked policy or relative-growth catalysts rather than noise, and the concurrent Europe outflow marks the regional divergence within the same report. The HY bond inflow after a run of withdrawals is worth holding against the wider subordinated debt spreads flagged in the Bull and Bear components, as the two series disagree about credit appetite. Follow-ons are whether breadth repairs, whether the private client buying pace persists beyond IPO-driven distortions, and how the midterm framing on yields and sector monopolies gets priced as the calendar approaches.

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