BoJ is set to raise interest rates next week, most likely by 25bps, and may signal readiness to speed up rate hikes, but has no preset view on terminal rate, or timing of further rate increases, according to sources

Source-sourced guidance of this kind ahead of a BoJ decision fits a now familiar pattern in the bank's normalisation cycle: pre-meeting briefing has tended to soften the surprise and shift attention from the hike itself to the signalled cadence of subsequent moves. The operative distinction is between the widely telegraphed 25bp step, which typically lands as a non-event for front-end JGBs and the yen, and any indication of an accelerated pace, which is where repricing in the OIS-implied path and short-dated yields has concentrated in past episodes. The caveat that there is no preset terminal rate is standard BoJ framing and has historically been read as deliberate ambiguity to preserve flexibility, so the tells sit elsewhere: the vote split, the language on the neutral range, and the governor's press conference tone on wage negotiations and the spring shunto. Watch also the yen's behaviour around the decision, since in prior tightening steps the currency has sold off on well-flagged hikes and rallied only when the forward signal exceeded expectations. Follow-ons include the accompanying outlook report and any pushback from political quarters, which has accompanied previous hikes without derailing them.