Brazil economists see year-end 2026 Selic rate at 13.25% (prev. 13.50%) and year-end 2027 Selic rate at 12.00% (prev. 12.00%), according to the BCB's poll

The BCB's weekly Focus survey is a consensus-tracking exercise, not a policy signal: it aggregates economist forecasts and historically gravitates toward the path the central bank itself has communicated, so revisions tend to follow Copom guidance rather than lead it. A modest downward mark to the nearer-year Selic expectation with the outer year unchanged is the typical signature of a market slowly pricing the start or pace of an easing cycle while leaving the terminal destination intact, a pattern seen in past Brazilian cycles where the curve reprices timing well before it reprices the end point. The transmission runs through the front end of the DI curve and, secondarily, the BRL via the carry differential, which remains wide even at the revised level and historically cushions the currency during the early stages of Brazilian easing. The relevant comparison is the gap between the survey median, market pricing in DI futures, and the bank's own conditional guidance; convergence among the three has generally preceded actual moves. The follow-ons are the next Copom statement language on the easing pace, the inflation prints that feed the bank's models, and whether subsequent survey revisions accelerate, since clustered weekly downgrades have tended to mark the approach of the first cut.