Brazil's Bolsonaro seen with 45% of votes vs Lula's 44% in the Presidential Election runoff, according to Quaest

Brazil's Bolsonaro seen with 45% of votes vs Lula's 44% in the Presidential Election runoff, according to Quaest.

A one-point spread in a runoff poll sits well inside the margin of error, which in episodes of this kind has meant the FX market treats individual surveys as noise and trades the aggregate polling trend instead. BRL has historically been one of the more election-sensitive EM currencies, with the transmission channel running through fiscal expectations rather than trade or external balances: the question the market prices is the post-election spending trajectory, the fate of whatever fiscal framework is in place, and the degree of pressure likely to be brought to bear on the central bank. The candidates in this pairing carry established form on both counts, so the repricing has tended to follow campaign signals on spending commitments and cabinet hints rather than polling alone. Worth noting that single-pollster headlines can also reflect hypothetical matchups, and the distinction between a registered runoff poll and a scenario survey matters for how much weight the print carries. The follow-ons are whether other pollsters confirm the direction, any shift in fiscal rhetoric from either campaign, and the sequencing of congressional arithmetic, since in past Brazilian cycles it has been the legislature's composition that ultimately determined how much of a fiscal agenda survived.