Bundesbank Monthly Report (Apr): German economy likely grew in Q1 but the Iran war weighs on the outlook for the current quarter

The Bundesbank's report suggests that while Germany experienced slight economic growth in Q1, the ongoing Iran conflict poses risks to the recovery, indicating only modest expansion in Q2.

Newsquawk StaffPublished 22 Apr 2026, 10:29 UTCOn the live feed at 10:09 UTC — 8 more headlines followed before this page went public

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Bundesbank Monthly Report (Apr): German economy likely grew in Q1 but the Iran war weighs on the outlook for the current quarter

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"Increasingly positive impulses from the more expansionary fiscal policy are expected to take effect".
"On the other hand, the effects of the war in the Middle East are expected to burden the German economy more broadly and noticeably".

Economy:

Economic output in Germany is likely to have risen slightly in the first quarter of 2026.
In terms of underlying trend, demand for industrial goods remained stable, but the outlook for industry has deteriorated.
"Looking ahead to the second quarter, only a slight expansion is anticipated, at best".
Inflation is likely to remain significantly elevated over the coming months. However, the duration and extent of the surge in inflation depend heavily on further developments in the Middle East conflict.

Context

This mixed outlook highlights potential inflationary pressures linked to geopolitical tensions, which could complicate monetary policy considerations moving forward.

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