Citi (C) raises FY26 NII to 'up mid-to-high 6%' (prev. +5-6%)

Upward revisions to full-year net interest income guidance from a large US money-centre bank sit within a well-worn pattern: guidance of this kind is typically nudged rather than reset, and a move of this size reads as confirmation that deposit costs and asset repricing are tracking better than the bank's own prior assumptions rather than as a change in the rate outlook. The channel runs through the margin and balance mix, since NII guidance embeds the bank's view on deposit beta, loan growth and the path of policy rates; an upward tweak with no accompanying shift in rate assumptions points to funding or mix outperformance. Form matters here: Citi has spent recent years trading at a discount to peers on a tangible book basis while executing a multi-year restructuring, and the market has tended to reward evidence that the core franchise generates improving returns independent of the transformation story. Worth distinguishing is whether the raise is volume and margin driven, which peers can replicate, or idiosyncratic to markets and treasury flows, which they cannot; comparable NII commentary from the other large banks in the same reporting window is the usual cross-check. The follow-ons are the expense and credit guidance issued alongside, since NII upgrades paired with higher cost or charge-off guidance have historically been received less well than clean raises.