Citi expects the BoJ to deliver 25bps rate hikes in Dec'26, Mar'27, Jul'27 (prev. forecast of Jan'27, Jun'27, Dec'27)

When one major desk moves, the pattern historically is that others follow within weeks, and it is the drift of the median forecast rather than any one call that tends to feed through into JGB front-end pricing and yen rate differentials. The distinction worth drawing is timing versus terminal: bringing the first hike forward re-prices the near-dated OIS and the belly of the JGB curve, while an unchanged end-point leaves the long end comparatively insulated. The pace implied, three 25bp moves across roughly a year, is consistent with the gradual, meeting-by-meeting cadence the BoJ has used in past tightening phases, where each step has been conditioned on wage negotiation outcomes and services inflation persistence. What carries signal next is whether BoJ board commentary and the next round of wage and CPI data corroborate the earlier start, and whether peer desks converge on the new dates. As a forecast revision rather than policy communication, the market read-through is typically modest and front-loaded in the front end and in USD/JPY via the narrowing rate differential channel.