EUROPEAN OPEN: NOVOB DC partners Orbis in USD 1.4bln deal; SDZ SW wins generic Ozempic approval in Canada; GLE FP seen unveiling higher profit targets; SHEL LN-led LNG Canada expansion could double capacity; TTE FP partners GIP on African infrastructure

EUROPEAN OPEN:

• European equities started the last trading session of the week on the front foot. On the week, futures of the broad Stoxx 600 and narrower Euro Stoxx 50 are primed for gains, but not enough to offset last week’s losses. Overnight, APAC stocks took impetus from the gains on Wall Street, where markets reversed the post-FOMC moves amid a Fed credibility boost, and as lower oil prices eased inflation concerns, and the BoJ rate hike was received dovishly after a 7-2 vote split and a lack of hawkish forward guidance, resulting in the JPY weakening vs the USD.
• USDJPY rose above 157 despite the BoJ raising rates by 25bps, as expected; the 7-2 vote (with dissents from PM Takaichi appointed policymakers), has reduced expectations for rapid further tightening, analysts said (see our BoJ reap below). USDJPY has been choppy during Governor Ueda’s press conference (ongoing at pixel time), but saw downside beneath 157 after he said the BoJ believes that the phase of policy had changed; Ueda later said the BoJ is not considering hiking rates at a specific time, and will assess risks at each meeting. Additionally, Japanese FinMin Katayama said authorities will work to maintain an orderly FX market, and will not hesitate to conduct further coordinated FX intervention, giving strength to the Japanese currency. Elsewhere, Japanese CPI was unchanged at 1.9% Y/Y in August (exp. 2.0%, prev. 1.9%), with the core measure easing to 1.7% Y/Y (exp. 1.8%, prev. 1.8%). The ex-food and energy component was unchanged at 1.9% Y/Y (exp. 2.0%).
• Gold is higher around USD 4,390/oz, continuing its rebound from Thursday, supported by lower Treasury yields following the FOMC rate decision, and falling oil prices easing inflation concerns. Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 gold price forecast at USD 5,400/oz, saying tighter Fed policy should slow rather than derail bullion’s rally. Copper pulled back from its weekly peaks, but is headed for an 11th weekly gain in 12 weeks as Chinese demand improved. Iron ore is headed for a weekly gain despite weak Chinese steel demand, with Singapore futures this week up around 1%; China’s steel association urged mills to curb output and inventories, while mill profitability remained below 10%. Ahead of Golden Week, imported ore purchases increased but near-term demand improved only marginally, Bloomberg said.
• Crude futures fell for a third day as Middle East supply concerns eased, with traders awaiting further diplomacy efforts. November Brent is below USD 103/bbl, and October WTI traded near 100/bbl. Traders cite reports that Saudi Arabia is restoring its East-West pipeline, and President Trump is expected to discuss the Iran war with Gulf leaders next week. Additionally, in the European pre-market, Al Akhbar citing sources reported that Iran has conveyed conditions to Washington via intermediaries for reopening the Strait of Hormuz, with minimum terms based on the Islamabad understanding; a source also disputed President Trump’s claim that Tehran directly sought renewed negotiations, calling it an attempt to influence global energy prices. Elsewhere, analysts at JPMorgan said the Iran war’s endgame has become increasingly difficult to model as previously assumed economic red lines have been crossed. They estimate oil fair value near USD 90/bbl vs current prices around USD 104/bbl, which the bank says implies that markets are pricing roughly 4mln BPD of additional supply losses beyond 10mln BPD already disrupted.
• In central bank speak, ECB VP Vujcic said market expectations for further rate hikes are being driven largely by higher energy prices. He said the ECB will assess a broader range of indicators, higher autumn inflation will weigh on GDP, and the current pace of rate hikes is worth maintaining for now. Separately, Bloomberg citing people familiar with the matter writes that ECB officials foresee further monetary tightening, though they have not reached a clear view on timing.
• German PPI rose by +1.1% M/M in August (exp. 0.4%, prev. 1.1%); the annual rate rose to 4.6% Y/Y (exp. 4.1%, prev. 3.0%). The PPI rise was driven mainly by energy prices (+8.3%), followed by intermediate goods (+6.1%).
• UK retail sales rose by +0.5% M/M in August (exp. -0.2%, prev. -0.5%), with the annual rate climbing to 2.4% Y/Y (exp. 1.9%, prev. 1.2%); the ex-fuel measure was up 0.6% M/M (exp. -0.2%), and the annual rate ex-fuel rose to 2.7% Y/Y (exp. 1.9%, prev. 1.8%). Retail sales rose as stronger clothing, food and department-store sales offset weaker fuel sales, while higher pump prices encouraged consumers to drive less, weighing on fuel purchases.
• In trade-related news, UK Chancellor Healey is to urge Brussels on Friday to include the UK in ‘Made in Europe’ policy, and will indicate that London is willing to negotiate to reach a ‘reset’ deal, FT says. Elsewhere, ahead of the US-China meeting on 24th September, reports state that the US is reportedly expected to delay announcing excess manufacturing-capacity tariffs until after the Trump-Xi summit. China’s MOFCOM also said Chinese and US trade teams remain in close contact over negotiations on mutual tariff reductions.

STOCK SPECIFICS:

• HEALTHCARE: Novo Nordisk (NOVOB DC) entered a multi-target drug-discovery partnership with AI-focused Orbis Medicines worth up to USD 1.4bln to develop oral treatments for cardiometabolic diseases; Axios says the deal reflects broader pharmaceutical efforts to convert biologic medicines that typically require injections or infusions into more convenient and potentially lower-cost oral therapies. Sandoz (SDZ SW) said Health Canada granted marketing authorisation for Sandoz Semaglutide, a GLP-1 receptor agonist injection and generic version of Ozempic. Separately, Sandoz announced a collaboration with mAbxience to expand access to biosimilar medicines; financial terms were not disclosed. AstraZeneca (AZN LN) efzimfotase alfa was granted US Priority Review for treating patients aged 2yrs+ with hypophosphatasia.
• ENERGY: Shell (SHEL LN)-led LNG Canada partners could reportedly approve an expansion of Canada’s first major LNG export terminal as early as October; the project would double LNG Canada’s capacity to 28mln tonnes per year. BP (BP/ LN) said talks with USW Local 7-1 were constructive, though several key issues remain unresolved; the company and union reps agreed to meet again next Tuesday. TotalEnergies (TTE FP) entered a partnership with Global Infrastructure Partners covering interests in certain African oil and gas infrastructure assets; GIP will contribute USD 1.8bln, while TotalEnergies will pay a throughput-based tariff for up to 15 years.
• MATERIALS: Nucor (NUE) shares fell 1.6% in extended US trading after its Q3 earnings outlook came in below expectations, with higher costs, weaker raw materials earnings and the absence of prior-quarter one-off benefits weighing on the forecast. Steel Dynamics (STLD) shares fell 2.2% in extended US trading after its Q3 earnings outlook came in below expectations, despite stronger steel operations and improving aluminium profitability, as weaker recycling earnings and fabrication margin pressure weighing.
• CONSUMER STAPLES: Nestle (NESN SW) said a Russian presidential decree placed Nestle Russia under temporary external administration; it is assessing the situation and its options, and said it will take necessary steps to protect its rights and maintain business continuity.
• FINANCIALS: SocGen (GLE FP) CEO is expected to unveil higher profitability targets, further cost cuts and selective growth investments on 21st September, Bloomberg reports. Cuts are expected mainly in French retail banking and Ayvens. Analysts expect continued emphasis on efficiency and capital discipline.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Nokia (NOKIA FH) was initiated with Buy rating at B. Riley Securities; Straumann Holding (STMN SW) reinitiated with Buy rating at Berenberg. Equinor (EQNR NO) upgraded at BofA; Adecco (ADEN SW) upgraded at BofA; Soitec (SOI FP) upgraded at Barclays. Renk (R3NK GY) upgraded at Goldman Sachs. Orange (ORA FP) downgraded at Morgan Stanley.

DAY AHEAD:

• DATA: In Europe, ECB will release its September Consumer Expectations Survey. Eurozone current account is also due (prev. EUR 35.1bln S.A.). In North America, US industrial production (exp. 0.3% M/M, prev. 0.2%), manufacturing output (exp. 0.3% M/M, prev. 0.2%) and capacity utilisation (prev. 76.3%) are due; The Conference Board will publish its leading index data (headline prev. 0.2% M/M).
• CENTRAL BANKS: Today’s Fedspeak includes: Fed’s Bowman (voter) on stress testing; Fed’s Schmid (2028 voter) at a bankers conference; Riksbank’s Thedeen speaks on innovation and payments.
• CRA: Potential ratings reviews today include: Moody’s on Germany (Aaa); Morningstar DBRS on France (AA); Scope Ratings on France (AA).
• ENERGY: Baker Hughes reports weekly rig counts (prev. oil 450, gas 132, total 591).
• OPTION EXPIRIES: FTSE 100, Euro Stoxx 50, DAX 40, E-mini S&P/Nasdaq/Dow Jones and CAC 40 Sep 2026 futures and options.
• RECAP - BOJ POLICY ANNOUNCEMENT: The BoJ raised its policy rate by 25bps to 1.25%, in a 7-2 vote, with dovish board members Toichiro Asada and Ayano Sato dissenting. Asada argued that with CPI growth (ex-fresh food) recently below 2%, the economic situation could not be described as strong, and favoured maintaining the existing guideline for money market operations. Sato considered that economic and price developments had not substantially accelerated compared with before, making a rate hike inappropriate at this time. The BoJ said underlying inflation is approaching 2%, and warned of a risk it could overshoot the target, citing broadening price pressures. In wake of the decision, the JPY fell vs the USD, as investors focused on the dovish dissenters and lack of explicitly hawkish guidance on further hikes. Daiwa Securities said the overall impression of the BoJ’s statement was dovish, noting that dissenters Sato and Asada, both chosen by PM Takaichi, suggest difficulties in raising rates further as new board members join.