Cochilco says Chile’s copper output will fall 8.4% to 4.9mln tonnes in 2026 before rising 3% to 5.08mln tonnes in 2027

Cochilco says Chile’s copper output will fall 8.4% to 4.9mln tonnes in 2026 before rising 3% to 5.08mln tonnes in 2027.

Cochilco projections are the standard reference point for Chilean supply assumptions and have historically run on the optimistic side, with actual output in recent years repeatedly undershooting the commission's forecasts as ore grades decline and project ramp-ups slip. The shape of this forecast, a further contraction followed by recovery, mirrors a pattern the market has seen before from Chile: the recovery leg tends to depend on new projects and expansions coming online on schedule, which is precisely where slippage has concentrated. The transmission channel is the concentrate market rather than the refined balance in the first instance, with treatment charges the tell for how tight mine supply actually is relative to smelter capacity. Chile's share of global mine output is large enough that its trajectory moves exchange inventories and forward spreads, though the demand side, particularly Chinese grid and property-linked consumption, has historically determined whether supply misses of this kind translate into sustained price support. The follow-ons are the state miner's own output guidance, the large private operators' quarterly production reports, and whether Cochilco revises this trajectory at its next scheduled update, since revisions to the recovery year have been the recurring feature.