CRUDE WRAP: WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 3.40 LOWER AT 102.43/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLED USD 2.92 LOWER AT 105.83/BBL

The crude complex saw losses, paring some of Tuesday's extensive strength, as participants await further Middle East or supply updates. Regarding headline catalysts for the downside, there were a few, coupled with an unexpected chunky crude build in the weekly private inventory metrics last night. Back to the headline drivers, China's Foreign Minister met with their Iranian counterpart, encouraged Iran and the US to exercise rationality, and urged all parties to take effective measures to reopen the Strait. Meanwhile, US/Iran, Iranian FM Aragchi stated the MoU with America is in effect and want to return to a peaceful solution. Furtherore, source reports suggested that US officials met with Yemeni Houthis in Oman over the weekend, and Houthis told the US they remain committed to 2025 ceasefire and will avoid hitting US or Israeli ships.

Away from geopolitics, but on the supply footing in the Middle East, Saudi reportedly look to resume half of key oil pipeline within days, which pushed WTI and Brent to session lows of USD 100.97/bbl and 104.00/bbl, respectively - vs earlier highs of 105.63 and 108.59/bbl.

Note, there was little move after the FOMC hiked rates by 25bps, as expected but the Dollar strengthened notably.

Sessions of this kind are the classic geopolitical risk-premium unwind: a diplomatic opening, even without a signed de-escalation, tends to flatten the front of the crude curve and narrow freight and insurance add-ons before any barrels actually move. The distinction that has mattered in past Middle East episodes is between headlines that reduce the probability of disruption and those that restore physical supply; the Saudi pipeline resumption report belongs to the second category and historically carries more weight than reassurance about shipping, which is why it marked the session lows. An unexpected build in the private inventory metrics removes the tightness argument at the same time, and in prior sequences the combination of a stock build plus easing transit risk has been the setup most hostile to prompt spreads and backwardation. The Iran and Houthi signals fit the familiar pattern in which rhetorical de-escalation precedes verification, leaving the market trading headline probability rather than cargo data. The dollar strengthening after an as-expected rate rise adds the usual translation channel, since a firmer dollar has tended to compound crude downside on risk-premium-unwind days. What has typically mattered next is whether shipping behavior, insurer pricing, and the official inventory print confirm the private survey, and whether the diplomatic contacts produce anything beyond statements of intent.