CRUDE WRAP: WTI (V6) SETTLED USD 3.40 LOWER AT 102.43/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLED USD 2.92 LOWER AT 105.83/BBL

Sessions of this kind are the classic geopolitical risk-premium unwind: a diplomatic opening, even without a signed de-escalation, tends to flatten the front of the crude curve and narrow freight and insurance add-ons before any barrels actually move. The distinction that has mattered in past Middle East episodes is between headlines that reduce the probability of disruption and those that restore physical supply; the Saudi pipeline resumption report belongs to the second category and historically carries more weight than reassurance about shipping, which is why it marked the session lows. An unexpected build in the private inventory metrics removes the tightness argument at the same time, and in prior sequences the combination of a stock build plus easing transit risk has been the setup most hostile to prompt spreads and backwardation. The Iran and Houthi signals fit the familiar pattern in which rhetorical de-escalation precedes verification, leaving the market trading headline probability rather than cargo data. The dollar strengthening after an as-expected rate rise adds the usual translation channel, since a firmer dollar has tended to compound crude downside on risk-premium-unwind days. What has typically mattered next is whether shipping behavior, insurer pricing, and the official inventory print confirm the private survey, and whether the diplomatic contacts produce anything beyond statements of intent.