[MARKET UPDATE]: Hawkish reaction with stocks, bonds and gold falling while the Dollar rises after the Fed hiked rates in unanimous decision, dot plots pencilled in one more hike this year, and Warsh emphasised commitment to price stability

The cross-asset combination described here, equities, bonds and bullion offered with the dollar bid, is the established template rather than an anomaly, and the tell for whether it extends has historically been the two-year yield and whether the move survives the press conference and the following session. The emphasis on price stability from a named official matters less for the day than for what it signals about the committee's reaction function: rhetoric of that kind has tended to raise the bar for any dovish pivot and to raise the sensitivity of the next inflation prints, since the dots give the market a fixed point to test against incoming data. The distinction worth drawing is between a hike that was fully priced and one that shifts the expected terminal rate; unanimity plus an unchanged extra dot suggests the latter was left open rather than resolved. Follow-ons are the usual ones: how the curve closes relative to the dots, whether other officials reinforce or soften the message in the days after, and whether the dollar's gain holds against the funding currencies, which has been the cleaner expression of this kind of surprise.