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CRUDE WRAP: WTI (V6) SETTLES USD 2.36 HIGHER AT 85.76/BBL; BRENT (X6) SETTLES USD 2.39 HIGHER AT USD 90.49/BBL

ByNewsquawk Staff

The crude complex saw gains to start the week as US/Iran tensions contuinue to bubble over. Over the weekend, the US attacked two missile launchers of the IRGC on Larak Island, while the IRGC later said that they retaliated with missiles and drones against two US bases in Jordan and warned that any attack against them will be met with a more devastating response. Today, Trump remarked that the US will respond to Iran attacks, and separate Iranian sources said Tehran’s retaliation for US strikes on Larak showed “no target in the region is beyond Iran’s reach". In most recent reports, Axios reported that Trump is weighing limited strikes against Iran to prevent them from reconstituting their radar and missile capabilities to attack ships.

Supply developments included Russia’s Yaroslavl oil refinery reportedly shutting two of three crude distillation units after August 28th drone attacks. Meanwhile, the Trump administration is expected to approve an expanded volume of biofuel waivers for US oil refiners on Monday, covering more than 1.8 billion renewable fuel credits, Reuters reported, citing sources. On Tuesday, Trump will meet with US refiners and fuel distributors as his administration looks for ways to expand domestic refining capacity and bring down gasoline prices.

WTI traded between USD 84.11-86.79/bbl, while Brent rose from a low of USD 89.03/bbl to a high of USD 91.52/bbl.

Subscribers had this at 18:50. Published here 19:10.

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Context

Geopolitical risk premia in crude built on direct US-Iran exchanges have followed a familiar pattern: sharp front-month rallies on escalation headlines, with the durability of the move hinging on whether tanker traffic, insurance rates, or physical flows through the Gulf are actually impaired rather than merely threatened. Rhetoric of the 'no target beyond reach' kind has historically added a few dollars that bleed out within sessions absent supply loss, while strikes touching export infrastructure or shipping have sustained the bid. The case distinction here is between tit-for-tat strikes on military assets, which the market has tended to fade, and any move against energy facilities or Hormuz-adjacent shipping, which reprices the whole curve rather than just the prompt. The Russian refinery outage adds a genuine, if modest, supply-side leg that acts on products and the Brent-Dubai and diesel cracks rather than outright flat price alone. The biofuel waiver expansion and the refiner meeting point the other way on US gasoline, with the administration's prior form favouring measures that cap pump prices ahead of politically sensitive windows. Worth watching are freight and war-risk insurance quotes, any confirmation of limited US strikes, and whether the curve shifts into deeper backwardation, the usual tell that the premium is being taken seriously by physical participants.

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