CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 2.12 HIGHER AT 104.12/BBL; BRENT (F7) SETTLES USD 2.63 HIGHER AT 113.43/BBL

The crude complex saw gains to end the week as focus remains on the potential resumption of US strikes on Iran following the midterms. On Friday, benchmarks saw some downside pressure amid reports surrounding a US-Iran deal; Qatari mediators were reportedly returning to Tehran today as part of efforts to reach a deal, with mediation talks coordinated with the US, and CBS later reported there were indications of progress being made. Despite that, crude benchmarks still lifted to settle firmly in the green as participants await the conclusion of the midterms to see whether or not US President Trump decides to attack Iran - reports have suggested a limited strike on Iranian infrastructure.

Elsewhere, IRIB reported that a supertanker exploded after hitting a naval mine on an unauthorised route through the Strait of Hormuz. On strikes, post-settlement on Thursday the Houthi military stated it carried out six operations against Saudi Arabia, which included targeting the Ras Tanura refinery, Aramco's Abqaiq facility and the Rabigh refinery with ballistic missiles. Further on geopolitics, but away from the Middle East, Russia's Defence Ministry said it struck military and energy facilities in Ukraine's Kyiv and Dnipropetrovsk regions, as well as port facilities and cargo vessels in Odesa.

On supply, Libya's NOC said an armed group shut down a valve on the Hamada-Zawiya crude oil pipeline, forcing a halt to pumping operations and threatening the loss of around 15k BPD in crude supplies to the Zawiya refinery.

For the record, in the weekly Baker Hughes rig count, oil rigs rose by 2 to 462, natgas rigs fell by 2 to 130, leaving the total unchanged at 603. On Friday, WTI traded between USD 102.43-104.99/bbl, while Brent traded between USD 111.03-114.29/bbl.

Sessions that close firm on conflict premium despite active diplomatic headlines follow a familiar pattern: the market has historically discounted mediated-deal reporting until something is signed, while pricing a probability-weighted strike scenario against dated catalysts, here the midterm conclusion. The distinction that matters for the curve is between headline risk that stays confined to the front of the strip and events that touch physical flows, since threats to transit chokepoints such as the Strait of Hormuz and strikes on Gulf processing infrastructure have tended to steepen backwardation and lift freight and insurance costs rather than move flat price alone. Attacks on Saudi refining and export facilities of the kind claimed here have in past episodes produced sharp gap moves followed by partial retracement once damage proved contained, with the durability of the premium hinging on actual throughput losses rather than the claims themselves. The Libyan pipeline outage is small in volume terms but fits the pattern of episodic supply interruptions that tighten prompt balances at the margin. The rig count sits within the range of noise that has characterised US supply response in recent cycles. The follow-ons are whether strike reports harden into action, whether mediation talks produce anything verifiable, and any confirmation of damage at the named facilities.