CRUDE WRAP: WTI (Z6) SETTLES USD 2.32 HIGHER AT 99.47/BBL; BRENT (Z6) SETTLES USD 4.35 HIGHER AT USD 113.17/BBL

The crude complex saw notable gains on Thursday amid renewed Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia, which fuelled escalation worries in the region. On that, the Houthis said they attacked the Defence Ministry in Riyadh and an Aramco facility in Yanbu, albeit with no Saudi confirmation. However, following these reports, Aramco reportedly instructed staff to evacuate its Dhahran HQ and work from home. Along similar lines, the US ordered non-essential diplomatic staff and their families to leave Saudi Arabia. Overall, the Middle East situation remains very fragile as the IRGC Navy stated four vessels transferring oil cargoes were struck in the Persian Gulf, while three other vessels hit sea mines yesterday west of the Strait of Hormuz, warning the US that efforts to encourage passage could result in strikes on US bases. WTI and Brent hit peaks of USD 100.17/bbl and USD 113.40/bbl, respectively, against earlier troughs of USD 97.72/bbl and USD 109.81/bbl.

Geopolitical premia of this kind have a well-worn script: unconfirmed or partially confirmed strikes on Saudi energy infrastructure and Gulf shipping lift the flat price sharply, with the back of the curve lagging the front as prompt supply risk dominates, and the durability of the move then hinges on whether physical flows are actually disrupted or only threatened. The distinction worth drawing here is between infrastructure attacks, which history shows are usually absorbed within days once damage assessments confirm capacity intact, and attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, which carry a stickier premium because they transmit through freight rates, war-risk insurance, and rerouting costs even when cargoes ultimately move. The breadth of this episode, with reported strikes on vessels, mine incidents, a US diplomatic drawdown, and an Aramco evacuation of its Dhahran headquarters, puts it closer to the shipping-disruption template than the single-facility one. Prior form on Houthi claims is mixed: announcements have frequently outrun confirmed damage, and the absence of Saudi confirmation is itself a tell worth tracking. The follow-ons that have historically resolved these episodes are official confirmation or denial from Riyadh, tanker-tracking evidence of actual loading interruptions at Gulf terminals, insurance and freight market repricing, and any US military response, which in past escalations has marked the pivot from premium-building to either entrenchment or unwind. Note the Brent-WTI spread widened markedly on the session, consistent with seaborne and waterborne supply risk being priced more heavily than landlocked US barrels, a pattern typical of Hormuz-centric scares.