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Daily US Equity Opening News - MSFT outages weigh; ANT IPO six times oversubscribed; NSCL needs more financing for ANT contract; CSCO slips as product & AI orders slow; AMAT Q4 beat; CBRS up after results, MSFT deal; MOD surges on SSNLF talks

Newsquawk Staff ·

DAY AHEAD

  • EVENTS: Informal Meeting of EU Leaders in Dublin.
  • DATA: In Europe, Eurozone Q3 GDP second estimate is seen rising by 0.4% Q/Q (prev. 0.6%), and 1.3% Y/Y (prev. 1.2%), while employment is seen rising 0.2% Q/Q (prev. 0.1%) and 0.4% Y/Y (prev. 0.5%). The Eurozone trade balance is seen printing a surplus of EUR 11.5bln (prev. EUR -16.1bln). In North America, US October PPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M (prev. 1.3%), and to 6.6% Y/Y (prev. 6.3%); core PPI is seen rising 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.7%) and the annual rate is seen unchanged at 5.0% Y/Y. Canada final manufacturing sales are expected to rise 0.1% M/M (prev. 1.5%), and wholesale sales by 0.5% M/M (prev. -1.6%).
  • CENTRAL BANKS: ECB’s Elderson joins a CBRT panel at COP31 (no text expected). Fed’s Vice Chair Jefferson (voter) speaks on productivity; Fed’s Bowman (voter) speaks on supervision and regulation; Fed’s Collins (2028 voter) gives opening remarks; Fed’s Daly (2027 voter) speaks at UNLV.
  • CRA: Potential reviews are due from Fitch on Germany (AAA), S&P on Italy (BBB+), Morningstar DBRS on the UK (AA).
  • ENERGY: IEA Oil Market Report; EIA weekly natgas storage; Baker Hughes weekly rig counts.
  • PREVIEW - US PPI (13:30GMT/08:30EST): US PPI is expected to rise 0.4% M/M in October (prev. 1.3%), while the annual rate is seen accelerating to 6.6% Y/Y (from 6.3%). Core PPI is expected to increase 0.3% M/M (prev. 0.7%), with the annual rate seen unchanged at 5.0%. The release follows hotter than expected October CPI data, released earlier in the week, which saw headline prices rise 0.4% M/M (exp. 0.3%) and core prices increase 0.3% M/M (exp. 0.2%). Pantheon Macroeconomics said the CPI report was consistent with a 0.35-0.40% M/M increase in core PCE, ahead of its November 25th release. The PPI data will provide further insight into inflationary pressures ahead of the 9th December FOMC meeting, particularly after hawkish remarks from Fed Governor Waller, who suggested further tightening was needed and that a 50bps December hike could be warranted if core CPI printed around 0.3% or higher. Money markets are currently fully pricing a hike of at least 25bps in December, with around an 11% probability of a larger 50bps move.

POLITICS/GEOPOLITICS

  • US SEC/CFTC - President Trump nominated bipartisan candidates to fill vacancies at the SEC and CFTC. SEC nominees are Republican Steven Levine and Democrat Kristin Johnson, while CFTC nominees are Republican Nathan Anonick and Democrat Matthew Rowland. Senate confirmation is required.
  • US-China, AI Models - US Treasury Secretary Bessent said a Chinese AI model was used in cyberattacks that disabled refrigeration systems at French supermarkets, and warned that Chinese AI models lack adequate safeguards. French Foreign Minister Barrot blamed Iran’s IRGC for the attacks, which affected approximately 700 French supermarkets. Similar incidents were reported across Europe.
  • US-China - US President Trump expressed doubts that Chinese President Xi would agree to release imprisoned Hong Kong activist Jimmy Lai, citing significant animosity towards Lai. Trump previously raised Lai’s case with Xi, and faces pressure to revisit it during next week’s APEC summit in Shenzhen. Lai is serving a 20-year sentence on national security charges.
  • China-Taiwan - China conducted unannounced military drills around Taiwan and the western Pacific involving over 100 vessels, which Taiwanese officials described as “silent intimidation” ahead of next week’s APEC summit, Reuters reports. Exercises reportedly included simulated attacks and potential blockade operations. Around 70 vessels remained active on Friday, while Beijing described its aircraft carrier exercises as routine.
  • Ukraine-Russia - Ukraine President Zelensky hailed progress following talks with US envoys Witkoff and Kushner in Ireland; he welcomed an agreement on a POW exchange, and a decision to include European representatives in the next round of peace negotiations with Russia. Comes after the US envoys’ meeting with Russian President Putin on Thursday.

MACRO

  • Fedspeak - Fed’s Williams (voter) said further rate increases are likely needed to curb persistent inflation despite resilient growth and a strengthening labour market. He gave no timetable, noted the economy is not overheating, and said AI investment could respond to interest rates. Williams highlighted a K-shaped economy and cautioned the Fed cannot reverse past price increases.
  • US Fiscal - US Treasury Secretary Bessent signalled willingness to work with Democrats on eliminating tax loopholes to reduce deficits without raising tax rates, Bloomberg reports. He reiterated that sustained growth above 3% and spending restraint could lower debt. US public debt has surpassed USD 40tln, and many analysts question whether growth alone can meaningfully reduce the debt burden.
  • Japanese Yen - Japanese FinMin Katayama warned of potential currency intervention after the JPY briefly weakened beyond 160 vs the USD. She cited sharp, one-sided movements and pledged appropriate action in coordination with the US Treasury, and reiterated both countries’ preference for exchange rates reflecting economic fundamentals. The Japanese currency remains pressured by the US-Japan interest-rate differential. Separately, the US Treasury confirmed that it spent approximately USD 500mln supporting the JPY during coordinated currency intervention with Japan on 31st July; the New York Fed confirmed it purchased JPY 79.4bln in the spot FX markets by selling EURs from the Treasury’s Exchange Stabilisation Fund.
  • BoJ - BoJ Deputy Governor Himino said the central bank’s profits remain difficult to forecast and that its ETF sales have had no significant market impact so far. He added that the BoJ has no plans to conduct a further review of its ETF sales programme at this time.
  • Chinese Yuan - HSBC believes the yuan’s 6-7% share of global payments could double as companies increasingly adopt it for treasury operations. Efforts to reduce currency mismatches, conversion costs and USD dependence are supporting adoption. Yuan settlement in China’s cross-border goods trade rose 20% Y/Y in 9-months 2026, while CIPS processed CNY 182.8tln through October.

TECH

  • Nvidia (NVDA) - Senate Banking Chair Scott requested testimony from former Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang and Commerce Secretary Lutnick over national security concerns surrounding Huang’s alleged relationship with a potential Chinese spy, Politico reports. Huang faces a 3rd December hearing, and potential subpoena, while Lutnick has agreed to testify voluntarily on 10th December regarding Commerce Department chip export controls. Elsewhere, US AG Blanche said the DoJ has yet to determine whether Alice Huang was a Chinese spy. Nvidia plans to continue investigating Jensen Huang’s possible involvement with Alice Huang, The Information reports citing a source.
  • Nvidia (NVDA) - Nvidia’s USD 500bln AI financing partnership with Apollo (APO), BlackRock (BLK), Blackstone, Brookfield (BAM), Goldman Sachs (GS) and KKR (KKR) has yet to produce a deal, Bloomberg reports. Customers and partners are pressing Nvidia to increase its 25% financing backstop, which is less generous than Broadcom’s (AVGO). The earliest potential deal is January, while former CEO Jensen Huang’s departure adds uncertainty, Bloomberg added.
  • Anthropic (ANT) - Anthropic’s planned Nasdaq IPO next week carries an indicative USD 1.25-1.4tln valuation, although investors expect pricing above that range, The Information reports; Morningstar estimates its value at USD 1.7tln. Investors are assessing Anthropic’s ability to sustain rapid revenue growth, expand beyond coding assistants and secure computing capacity, alongside uncertainty following Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang’s departure, the report adds. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Anthropic’s IPO is around six times oversubscribed, with the company seeking up to USD 64.4bln publicly and USD 26bln privately.
  • OpenAI - OpenAI is backing bipartisan US legislation to tighten AI chip exports to China, prevent smuggling and restrict access to ASML (ASML) chipmaking equipment, Bloomberg reports. Anthropic (ANT) also supports tougher controls, while Nvidia (NVDA)-linked groups oppose the measures. Jensen Huang’s ouster at Nvidia has strengthened congressional momentum, although the proposals remain under negotiation and could face a presidential veto, the article adds.
  • Nscale (NSCL) - Nvidia (NVDA)-backed Nscale warned it needs additional financing in 2027 to fulfil its USD 45bln Anthropic (ANT) contract, complicating its planned USD 35bln IPO, the FT reports. The company estimates a 9-month net loss of nearly USD 1.7bln on revenue of USD 307mln, with debt at USD 5.5bln. Microsoft (MSFT) recently cancelled a London contract and declined a Texas option.
  • ByteDance - ByteDance plans to repurchase up to USD 6bln of shares from existing investors at a USD 400bln valuation, up 20% from its previous buyback, The Information reports.
  • Microsoft (MSFT) - Microsoft is struggling to restore Teams, Outlook and Copilot following a global outage affecting 74 countries and territories for over 11 hours. Microsoft attributed the disruption to overloaded infrastructure after servers became unavailable and ruled out a cyberattack. MSFT has since said it is seeing positive results for service stability and increased capacity as a result of its latest optimisation actions"
  • Cisco (CSCO) - Cisco shares slipped in US afterhours trading as slowing product order growth and softer AI orders from hyperscale customers overshadowed stronger than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, upgraded FY guidance and robust demand for AI networking equipment. Q1 adj. EPS 1.40 (exp. 1.33), Q1 revenue +24% Y/Y at USD 18.52bln (exp. 18.13bln), marking the strongest revenue and adj. EPS growth in over 15 years. Q1 product orders +21% Y/Y (vs +35% in Q4). Adj. gross margin declined to 65.6% (vs 68.1% Y/Y), with product gross margin at 63.7%, and services gross margin at 72.9%. Remaining performance obligations +8% Y/Y to USD 46.2bln, while deferred revenue +7% Y/Y to USD 30.1bln. Cisco IQ customers nearly doubled Q/Q to over 17,000, covering 23mln devices. CEO Chuck Robbins highlighted strong AI networking demand and enterprise network upgrades, although hyperscaler orders remain uneven between quarters. Sees Q2 adj. EPS between 1.34-1.36 (exp. 1.23), revenue between USD 18.0-18.2bln (exp. 17.9bln) and adj. gross margin between 65-66%. Raises FY27 adj. EPS guidance to between 5.47-5.53 (exp. 5.11; prev. saw 5.05-5.11) and revenue to between USD 74.8-75.8bln (exp. 73.0bln; prev. saw 72.2-73.4bln). Expects FY27 AI infrastructure revenue of USD 9bln, more than double FY26 levels.
  • Applied Materials (AMAT) - Shares edged higher as stronger than expected quarterly earnings and revenue, alongside upbeat sales guidance, reflected robust AI-driven demand for semiconductor manufacturing equipment and expectations of continued growth in chipmaker investment. Q4 adj. EPS 4.16 (exp. 4.06), Q4 revenue USD 10.41bln (exp. 10.3bln), Q4 adj. net income USD 3.32bln (exp. 3.24bln), Q4 adj. operating income USD 3.68bln (exp. 3.62bln). Semiconductor Systems revenue +64% Y/Y to USD 8.0bln, supported by strong AI-driven demand for advanced chipmaking equipment. China revenue +35% Y/Y to USD 2.64bln, accounting for 25% of total revenue (vs 29% Y/Y). CEO Gary Dickerson noted record FY26 performance, with Semiconductor Systems revenue expected to grow more than 40% in calendar 2026, and anticipates another record year in 2027 as wafer fabrication equipment demand increases by more than 30%. Sees Q1 adj. EPS between 4.15-4.55 (exp. 4.21), including a 0.04/shr tax benefit and excluding 0.01/shr in acquisition-related charges; sees Q1 revenue between USD 10.6-11.6bln (exp. 10.74bln).
  • Cerebras (CBRS) - Cerebras shares surged 17% in extended US trading after stronger than expected core revenue, upbeat quarterly and FY guidance, and improving margin expectations were reinforced by a new Microsoft (MSFT) deal, and accelerating demand for AI inference technology. Q3 adj. EPS 0.12 (exp. -0.14), Q3 core revenue +70% Y/Y at USD 230.9mln (exp. 214.7mln). Secured 700MW of contracted data centre capacity, with its high-speed AI inference pipeline expanding more than 10-fold during the quarter. Announced a new partnership with Microsoft, signed in October, with revenue contributions expected from Q1 2027, alongside existing relationships with Amazon (AMZN) and Oracle (ORCL). CEO highlighted growing demand for its AI hardware and cloud services, supported by GPU supply constraints and rising costs. Sees Q4 core revenue between USD 310-330mln (exp. 271mln) and core gross margin between 47-49% (exp. 42.1%). Raises FY26 core revenue guidance to between USD 940-960mln (exp. 887.5mln; prev. saw 880-890mln) and core gross margin to between 47-49% (prev. saw 41-43%). Expects revenue to triple in FY27 to approximately USD 2.85bln (exp. 2.92bln).
  • Navitas Semiconductor (NVTS) - Navitas Semiconductor filed a second patent infringement lawsuit against Renesas Electronics in a US federal court in Texas, alleging six violations involving gallium nitride technology. The latest case targets Renesas’ new 650V SuperGaN product and 100V REXGaN transistors. An earlier lawsuit concerning Renesas’ broader SuperGaN product lines also remains pending.

CONSUMER CYCLICAL

  • Richemont (CFRUY) - H1 operating profit CHF 3.12bln (vs 2.35bln Y/Y), H1 revenue CHF 12.3bln (exp. 12.2bln). Sales +17% at constant exchange rates (exp. +16.2%), supported by strong demand for jewellery and improving performance across its luxury watch brands. Q2 sales +13% at CER to CHF 5.95bln (exp. 5.89bln), driven by continued strength in Cartier and other jewellery Maisons. Specialist Watchmakers sales +10% Y/Y, led by Vacheron Constantin, Jaeger-LeCoultre and A. Lange & Sohne, supported by established collections and new product launches. Sales increased across all distribution channels during H1, while regional performance remained resilient despite continued soft demand in China. APAC sales were stable, while all other regions recorded double-digit growth, led by the Americas and Japan.
  • Hugo Boss (BOSSY) - CEO Daniel Grieder will step down, effective 31st December; David Epstein, joining from Frasers Group (FRAS LN), will succeed him as CEO, effective 1st January.
  • Stellantis (STLA) - Canada is considering suing Stellantis for allegedly breaching funding agreements after the carmaker agreed to sell its idle Brampton factory to Roshel. Industry Minister Joly claims Stellantis owes hundreds of millions of Canadian dollars, while the company has offered to repay CAD 24mln.
  • Kalshi - Kalshi is discussing fresh fundraising at a USD 65bln valuation, weeks after securing funding at USD 40bln, Bloomberg reports. The move comes ahead of a planned IPO, with monthly notional trading volume rising from USD 40bln in August to nearly USD 100bln in October. Its annualised revenue run rate recently surpassed USD 5bln.

CONSUMER DEFENSIVE

  • MBRF Global Foods (MBRFY) - National Beef, controlled by Brazil’s MBRF Global Foods, said the worst of the US cattle downturn appears over after margins reached 2.1%, their highest since Q3 2024, Bloomberg reports. Reduced slaughter and resilient consumer demand supported profitability despite elevated cattle prices. Rival JBS (JBS) also reported improving US beef results, while increased imports and resumed Mexican cattle shipments provided relief.
  • Keurig Dr Pepper (KDP) - Keurig Dr Pepper priced a secondary offering of 57.97mln shares at USD 34.50/shr, below its previous closing price of USD 35.42, raising approximately USD 2bln.
  • Carlsberg A/S (CABGY) - Carlsberg plans investor meetings as early as next week for an India IPO potentially raising USD 600mln at a USD 4bln valuation, Bloomberg reports. The offering, potentially launching in January, would involve the Danish parent selling up to 15% of Carlsberg India.
  • Flowers Foods (FLO) - Q3 adj. EPS 0.10 (exp. 0.15), Q3 revenue USD 1.17bln (exp. 1.18bln). Results were impacted by pressure on household budgets, shifting consumer preferences and heightened promotional activity, with fresh packaged bread demand remaining challenging. CEO Ryals McMullian highlighted improving sequential trends for Nature’s Own following its relaunch, although recovery has been slower than anticipated, particularly in loaf bread. The company is seeking amendments or waivers from lenders on maximum leverage and interest coverage covenants to ensure continued compliance from April 2027, despite remaining compliant in October. Discussions with lenders are ongoing, with contingency plans identified to support debt reduction and liquidity if amendments are not secured. Lowers FY26 adj. EPS guidance to between 0.63-0.68 (exp. 0.77; prev. saw 0.75-0.85), revenue view to between USD 5.016-5.063bln (exp. 5.08bln; prev. saw 5.07-5.142bln), and adj. EBITDA to between USD 415-430mln (prev. saw 453-481mln).

INDUSTRIALS

  • SpaceX (SPCX), Tesla (TSLA) - SpaceX and Tesla are advancing merger negotiations, and could potentially announce a deal as early as December or early 2027, according to Bloomberg. Their boards are discussing terms and governance for a combination spanning EVs, energy storage, rockets and satellites, and leveraging AI across their operations. Tesla’s Chinese manufacturing and SpaceX’s US defence contracts present significant regulatory challenges, the report adds.
  • Modine Manufacturing (MOD), Samsung Electronics (SSNLF) - Samsung is in talks to acquire US-listed data centre cooling specialist Modine Manufacturing, Bloomberg reports. A deal could emerge within weeks, although discussions remain uncertain and another bidder could emerge. Modine shares surged 29% in US afterhours trading following the report.
  • QXO (QXO) - Q3 adj. EPS 0.13 (exp. 0.14), Q3 revenue USD 4.895bln (exp. 4.88bln). Organic daily revenue trends improved for the second consecutive quarter despite continued weakness in the construction market, while companywide pricing rose +2.2% Y/Y. Roofing and Waterproofing complementary product sales +4.2% Y/Y, with TRI-BUILT reaching a record 10.6% of sales. Mechanical insulation distribution revenue +16% Y/Y, driven by strong data centre demand. CEO highlighted improving organic revenue trends, pricing gains and continued efforts to optimise the company’s product mix amid challenging market conditions.

ENERGY

  • VLCCs - Texas Port CEO said US crude exports face a super tanker shortage stemming from the Iran conflict, forcing shippers onto smaller vessels and towards Europe, Bloomberg reports. No VLCCs entered the US Gulf to load crude last week for the first time in four years. Corpus Christi’s Q3 exports fell almost 3% Y/Y, while 17 of 40 Gulf cargoes headed to Rotterdam.
  • ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) - ExxonMobil and partners Chevron and CNOOC approved a further USD 12.5bln investment in Guyana’s offshore Longtail development. The Stabroek block’s eighth project targets gas and condensate production from 2030, with capacity to process 1.2bln cubic feet of gas daily and produce 250K barrels of condensate. The project includes approximately 45 subsea wells.

FINANCIALS

  • Berkshire Hathaway (BRK.B) - Berkshire raised JPY 182.3bln via a five-tranche Japanese bond offering, paying wider borrowing spreads than in April, Bloomberg reports. The 5yr tranche priced at 75bps over TONA mid-swaps (prev. 70bps), while the 10yr tranche remained at 90bps, and the 30yr tranche widened to 105bps (prev. 100bps).
  • Robinhood (HOOD) - October total platform assets reached USD 383bln, with funded customers at 28.9mln. Net deposits totalled USD 15.1bln during October, representing a 46% annualised growth rate relative to September platform assets. Over the trailing 12 months, net deposits reached USD 80.5bln, equivalent to a 23% annual growth rate relative to October 2025 platform assets.
  • Nu Holdings (NU) - Q3 net income USD 1.1bln, Q3 revenue USD 6.3bln (exp. 5.94bln). Added 3.7mln customers during the quarter, bringing its global customer base to 143mln, including nearly 120mln in Brazil, 16.6mln in Mexico and 6.1mln in Colombia. Customer activity rate increased to 83.6% (vs 83.5% in Q2), while monthly average revenue per active customer reached approximately USD 18. Nu US reached customers across all 50 states within weeks of launch.

REAL ESTATE

  • Realty Income (O) - Executive Vice President, Chief Strategy Officer and President of Realty Income International Neil Abraham will leave the company; will remain in his current roles until 31st December, with a planned consulting agreement extending through 31st March 2027.

HEALTHCARE

  • GLP-1 - Nearly 44% of US GLP-1 users alter prescribed treatment, primarily due to cost and availability, according to CDC data. Skipping doses was most common at 28%, while over 20% reported using compounded medications not reviewed by regulators. Younger adults are particularly likely to modify dosing, the report said.
  • Eli Lilly (LLY) - Eli Lilly broke ground on a USD 3.5bln manufacturing facility in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley to produce injectable medicines, including investigational obesity treatment retatrutide. The facility forms part of Lilly’s USD 50bln US manufacturing expansion and is among 10 new domestic sites announced since 2020. It is expected to create 850 permanent jobs and 2K construction jobs.
  • Regeneron (REGN) - Regeneron reported positive Phase 2 PINNACLE trial results for investigational POTS treatment baloncibart, with a single dose reducing excessive heart-rate increases upon standing and improving symptoms for four weeks. Doses up to 450mg were generally well tolerated. A potentially pivotal Phase 3 trial is planned for H1 2027, although regulatory authorities have not evaluated its safety or efficacy.
  • Novartis (NVS) - Novartis announced new long-term Phase III data showing that Rhapsido (remibrutinib) maintained sustained efficacy through week 52 in patients with chronic inducible urticaria (CIndU).

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