[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses mixed in light volume, AZN LN discontinues a Phase 3 trial, rising copper prices lift miners
- European bourses start the week mixed but in light volumes, given the Summer lull. Not much in terms of drivers to give a clear direction, with weekend geopolitical newsflow light. The 60-day US-Iran MoU deadline expires today, although the expiry does not automatically trigger a resumption of hostilities. Iran's Foreign Minstry held its weekly press conference, in which they said no talks have begun due to Washington's violation of the MoU, while stating that talks with Oman continue.
- Sectors highlight the mixed picture. Basic Resources outperform, given the lift in 3M LME copper prices to new ATHs, while Tech is supported following reports from Bloomberg that Anthropic reported Q2 revenue of over USD 11.5bln (prev. 0.79bln Y/Y). To the downside is Optimised Personal Care, Food Beverages & Tobacco and Retail.
- Plenty of pharma updates this morning. Starting with AstraZeneca (+1.2%), the main story is the discontinuation of its Phase 3 lung cancer trial, with the trial not likely to meet its dual primary endpoints. On the positive front, the Co. announced positive results from its Phase 3 SAFFRON and DESTINY-Lung04 trial. Elsewhere, Argenx (+8.3%) said its ALKIVIA myositis Phase 3 study met its primary endpoint.
- An update on the Commerzbank-UniCredit merger saga. Bloomberg reported that senior German government officials are open to discussing a sale of its 12.7% stake in Commerzbank if a joint strategy is agreed upon.
- US equity futures are mixed in early Monday trade, with the NQ printing modest gains. In terms of key stories: Alibaba's Qwen open-weight AI models surpassed 3bln global downloads over six months, outpacing Meta and Google; Alphabet is looking to sell AUD 5bln in its debut AUD bond offering; PayPal is in talks to sell itself to Stripe and Advent.
Thin summer sessions of this kind have historically amplified single-stock and sector moves that broader volume would absorb, so the leadership mix here, miners on copper highs, pharma on trial headlines, tends to overstate the signal relative to a full-participation tape. Phase 3 discontinuations are a recurring feature of large-cap pharma newsflow, and the established pattern is that the read-through hinges on pipeline depth: names with concurrent positive readouts, as AstraZeneca carries here, have usually seen the hit contained to the affected programme rather than the franchise, with the peer set in the same indication often moving in sympathy on the mechanism question. Copper prints at fresh highs have in past episodes lifted the diversified miners broadly rather than selectively, with the follow-through question being whether the move is supply-driven or demand-driven, since the former has historically faded faster. The stake-sale angle in the Commerzbank saga fits the long-running pattern in European bank consolidation where government shareholdings are the gating item and headlines of openness to discussion have preceded formal processes by a wide margin. The geopolitical item, an expiring understanding without automatic escalation, has a familiar shape: markets have tended to price the deadline itself as a non-event and the subsequent rhetorical temperature as the actual tell. The items worth tracking are the copper complex's behaviour on full volume, any pharma peer read-throughs, and whether the stake-sale commentary is echoed officially.