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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income benchmarks softer despite lower energy, UK and French politics in focus

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Fixed income benchmarks softer despite lower energy, UK and French politics in focus

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Quiet trade across G10s, USD looks to retrace lost ground against recent outperformers CHF and NOK

France sells EUR 13.999bln vs exp. EUR 12-14bln 2.40% 2029, 1.50% 2031, 3.25% 2032 and 3.50% 2033 OAT

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  • Global fixed income benchmarks are modestly softer across the board, with a lack of clear drivers, and as US-Iran strikes continue to stoke fears of prolonged inflation.
  • Gilts (-17 ticks) trade at the lower end of its 87.15-87.60 range, giving back some of Wednesday’s gains. This morning, UK GDP printed 0.1% M/M, in line with expectations, while the three-month gauge ticked down to 0.7% (from 0.8%), but still beat the 0.5% consensus. Following the data, Pantheon raised its Q2 GDP view to 0.3% from 0.2%. For the BoE, the firm assumes a prolonged period of rates on hold, with solid growth being a reason for a potential hike. Politics remain front and centre: reports on Wednesday suggest that incoming PM Andy Burnham is likely to appoint Home Secretary Mahmood as the next Chancellor. Markets have taken this as a positive as she is seen as fiscally conservative, though many still seek clarity on her broader positions. Polymarket gives Mahmood a 63% chance vs Miliband's 9% to become the next Chancellor.
  • OATs (-21 ticks) follow their European peers lower. Politics remains in focus; recently, RN's Le Pen was found guilty of embezzlement by the Paris court, but given the timing of the first round of the Presidential Election, she is eligible to run for President. Since then, she announced she would appeal the court's decision and has launched her Presidential campaign. Polls show that Le Pen has extended her lead, with support rising to above 35% from 33% before she announced her bid. As the Presidential Election on April 18th 2027 nears, and polls become clearer, OATs will start to price in potential outcomes and, with increased uncertainty, could see further downside, some analysts have suggested. Today’s auctions came broadly in line with priors, with demand holding near 3x.
  • USTs (-6+ ticks) look ahead for more Fedspeak, with Logan, Schmid and Jefferson all set to speak on the economy and economic outlook today (note: Jefferson is after hours). On the data front, initial jobless claims and retail sales are the highlights.

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