Datafolha poll shows Bolsonaro is seen with 47% of votes vs President Lula at 46% in the Brazil presidential runoff

Datafolha poll shows Bolsonaro is seen with 47% of votes vs President Lula at 46% in the Brazil presidential runoff.

Datafolha is Brazil's benchmark polling house, and runoff polls this tight have historically been treated as noise-level readings rather than signal; the established pattern in Brazilian presidential cycles is that final-round polls within the margin of error leave the outcome genuinely open, with late movement driven by abstention and undecided break rather than by switching between candidates. The market-relevant distinction in episodes of this kind is fiscal, not electoral per se: assets have tended to price the perceived spending credibility of each candidate, so a coin-flip race sustains elevated implied volatility in BRL and in the belly of the local rates curve rather than a directional move. On prior occasions the traded sequence has been rising vol into the vote, positioning lightening, and then a sharp re-pricing on the result and on early signals of the incoming team's fiscal and central bank posture. Worth noting that polling house form matters in Brazil, and Datafolha's track record is the reference point desks use when weighing a single print against the average of surveys. The follow-ons are subsequent polls for trend rather than level, and any campaign signals on fiscal anchors and state enterprise policy, which is where the BRL and rates sensitivity actually sits.