DoubleLine’s Gundlach says “accumulation of more information” reminds him of a time when the Fed didn’t pull the trigger fast enough; moving towards headline inflation with a 4 handle; Base case is likely a rate hike in December
Newsquawk Staff ·
- The Fed should be raising interest rates, which is what the post-FOMC curve steepening is telling you; market isn’t accepting rating agency ratings on AI bonds; all spreads are widening.
What it means
Outside investor calls for tightening sit in a familiar category: high-profile bond managers have a long record of publicly framing the Fed as behind the curve, and such commentary tends to matter for rates only insofar as it amplifies or front-runs a repricing already under way rather than creating one. The mechanism cited here is specific: post-meeting curve steepening read as the market pricing insufficient tightening, which historically has been the shape the curve takes when inflation risk is seen as under-priced, as distinct from the bear flattening that accompanies an accepted hiking cycle. The reference to headline inflation approaching a 4 handle frames a hawkish base case that runs against the prevailing rate path, so the operative question is whether incoming price data validate it; calls of this kind have tended to gain traction only when confirmed by consecutive prints, and to fade when the data break the other way. The secondary thread, widening spreads and skepticism toward ratings on AI-linked credit, is a separate signal about risk appetite in a crowded thematic corner of the market, where episodes of indiscriminate issuance have previously been followed by differentiation across structures and sponsors. Worth watching are the subsequent inflation releases, the tone of Fed speakers between meetings, and whether spread widening stays confined to the AI complex or migrates into the broader credit indices. As commentary rather than policy, the immediate weight on the front end is limited; the steepening claim itself is the falsifiable element.
- Fed Chair Warsh (Q&A): Economy is strong and economy is pointing in the right direction
- Fed Chair Warsh (Q&A): When the Fed removed a dose of accommodation in September, says the effects on financial market conditions were consistent with expectations
- Fed Chair Warsh (Q&A): Was skeptical that interest rates would not have an effect on AI, but have seen interest rates have had an effect; believes interest rates matter, in regards to the new technology
- Fed Chair Warsh (Q&A): Ensuring price stability is not about a fixed date on a calendar;
- Fed Chair Warsh says the committee believes that the accumulation of more information will help it determine the policy stance appropriate to ensure a timely return of inflation to the 2% goal and the committee will deliver price stability
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