ECB President Lagarde (Q&A), asked about the potential for a June rate hike, says she will not confirm whether we are close to Baseline Scenario 1 or 2; but we are certainly are moving away from the baseline

Lagarde's remarks indicate that while the ECB is deliberating on the rate path, the uncertainty surrounding economic conditions is significant.

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ECB President Lagarde (Q&A) says today's decision was unanimous; ECB also debated a rate hike today

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ECB President Lagarde (Q&A), asked about the potential for a June rate hike, says she will not confirm whether we are close to Baseline Scenario 1 or 2; but we are certainly are moving away from the baseline

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  • ECB today made an informed decision with insufficient information
  • Had a debate at length
  • Hard data is in line with projections, but there is uncertainty; will need to revisit the issues at the next meeting
  • Six weeks until next meeting should be sufficient time for the ECB to assess
Context

Her suggestion that they are moving away from the baseline implies a potential pivot in strategy, which could weigh on market expectations for a June rate hike. Traders should monitor upcoming data closely, as this will influence the ECB's assessment ahead of the next meeting.

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