ECB's Lagarde says inflation has been rising predominantly, but not exclusively as a result of energy prices, adds we're not seeing any second round effects yet

The framing here mirrors the standard ECB posture during energy-driven inflation episodes: acknowledge the external driver, then shift the burden of proof onto wages, which is where policy risk is actually anchored. The phrase 'not seeing any second round effects yet' carries the qualifier that matters; officials who frame it this way have historically been signalling vigilance rather than comfort, since by the time second round effects are visible in the data they are embedded in negotiated pay and price-setting behaviour. The explicit reference to collective bargaining entry points is consistent with how the ECB has treated European wage rounds as its preferred leading indicator, and it marks negotiated wage settlements as the release series to treat as policy-relevant rather than headline inflation alone. The growth remark, weak but tolerable, preserves optionality: central banks in this position have typically used 'not brilliant but acceptable' growth language to justify staying restrictive rather than to open the door to easing. The redirect on French debt to domestic fiscal policy is the usual institutional division of labour, with the ECB declining to underwrite sovereign outcomes and instead pointing at Paris; the transmission channel there is OAT-Bund spreads and any hint of fragmentation concern, which is where such commentary has mattered before. Follow-ons are whether other Governing Council members echo the wage-watch framing and whether upcoming negotiated wage data validates or relieves the caution.