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ECB's Vujcic says may see further price pressures with a lag

Newsquawk Staff ·

ECB's Vujcic says may see further price pressures with a lag.

What it means

Lagged-pass-through arguments of this kind have been a recurring feature of ECB communication in periods where disinflation was well advanced: the framing keeps the option of renewed tightening open without committing to it, and historically such remarks from governing council members have moved front-end Euribor pricing only at the margin unless echoed by the core. The operative distinction is whether the comment reflects the council's median or its more hawkish wing, since it is the median voter that sets the path. Vujcic has prior form on the hawkish side of the Croatian seat and the council's distribution, so positioning of the remark matters more than its content. Language built around lags tends to raise the sensitivity of the next wage settlements data and services inflation prints, a pattern that has recurred whenever the ECB has debated whether underlying pressures are durably returning to target. The follow-ons are whether other officials adopt similar phrasing and how the remarks sit against the prevailing cut-versus-hold balance. As commentary rather than a decision, the signal is directional.

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