EUROPEAN OPEN: BHP AT & AAL LN copper production falls; AZN LN & ORCL launch collaboration; PUB FP reaches FCC agreement on LiveRamp acquisition; SU FP launches EUR 6bln capital hike for PTC; ABBN SW Q3 orders jump

• European equities have started on the back foot; overnight, APAC stocks were mostly lower despite the rebound on Wall Street, as the region failed to sustain the AI-led recovery, with chip-heavy markets in South Korea and Japan underperforming; South Korea’s Kospi declined, led by SK Hynix and Samsung Electronics, amid rising US Treasury yields and AI financing concerns, while data centre company Elice tumbled over 30% on its Kosdaq debut.
• Brent is up, hovering around USD 110/bbl, as traders weighed Iranian threats in the Strait of Hormuz against recovering Gulf exports. Iran’s IRGC said a US MQ-9 drone was intercepted and destroyed over the Strait of Hormuz using a new advanced air defence system. Separately, an explosion was reportedly heard in Bandar Abbas, southern Iran. Elsewhere, US Energy Secretary Wright said crude flows reached roughly 80% of prewar levels.
• Gold traded near USD 4,120/oz as elevated oil prices and higher US Treasury yields weighed. Copper held near USD 14,340/tonne as traders questioned whether potential US tariffs on refined copper imports would materialise. BHP also reported a 19% Y/Y production decline.
• In Europe, French unrest eased overnight after authorities imposed targeted curfews following violent cost-of-living protests.
• German Chancellor Merz pledged to revive investment and reform Germany’s pension and labour systems; he highlighted an industrial AI partnership with Nvidia, reaffirmed Germany’s commitment to the Euro, and backed tougher EU measures against Chinese trade practices while opposing a trade war. Elsewhere, Merz said ECB leadership vacancies could be filled rapidly if necessary. Germany is seeking to retain its Executive Board presence as markets chief Schnabel departs for the IMF in January. Recent reports suggest that President Lagarde may also leave before her term ends in October 2027, and Chief Economist Lane’s tenure expires in May.
• In data, the UK added 102K jobs in August (exp. 20K), with the jobless rate surprisingly dipping to 4.7% (exp. 4.9%, prev. 4.9%). Average earnings ex-bonuses rose by 3.7% in the three months to August (exp. 3.6%), while those including bonuses slipped to 3.7% (exp. 3.8%, prev. 3.9%). The timelier HMRC payrolls change for September printed 13K (prev. 1K), and the claimant count rose to 30.3K (exp. 19.4K). The data gives Chancellor Healey an unexpected lift before his budget next week, though the ONS warned that the 4.7% unemployment estimate is still affected by data-collection quality problems.
• Elsewhere in the UK, Chancellor Healey is minded not to raise Capital Gains Tax in next week’s Budget despite calls from Labour colleagues, The Times reports. The stance follows warnings that higher rates could encourage wealthy individuals to leave the UK or defer asset sales.
• On trade, the UK Treasury is expected to be asked to assess the economic benefits of closer ties with the EU, including a potential customs union, single market return or full EU membership, ahead of the 20th November Brussels summit, according to the FT.

• MATERIALS: BHP Group (BHP AT) reported copper production -19% Y/Y at 400.7K tonnes, citing lower grades, maintenance and disruptions. Iron ore output rose +4% Y/Y to 68.5mln tonnes, while energy coal increased +26% Y/Y to 4.4mln tonnes; reaffirmed its FY27 guidance of 1.65-1.8mln tonnes copper, 260-272mln tonnes iron ore and 14-16mln tonnes energy coal. Anglo American (AAL LN) Q3 copper production 175K tonnes (prev. 184K), impacted by extreme weather in Chile and lower-grade ore at Collahuasi, while premium iron ore output fell to 13.8mln tonnes (prev. 14.3mln). Anglo reaffirmed its 2026 production guidance, supported by expected improvements in copper ore grades in Q4. Steel Dynamics (STLD) shares fell 4.5% in extended US trading after Q3 EPS of 5.26 (exp. 5.41) and revenue of USD 6.5bln (exp. 6.55bln) missed expectations. Execs highlighted robust domestic demand and remained optimistic on steel and aluminium markets into 2027.
• INDUSTRIALS: Schneider Electric (SU FP) announced a EUR 6bln capital hike to finance its acquisition of PTC. US Transport Secretary Duffy is expected to announce FAA certification of Boeing’s (BA) 737 MAX 10 at its Everett factory today; airlines have ordered nearly 1,500 of the aircraft, representing around 30% of Boeing’s outstanding 737 backlog. ABB (ABBN SW) Q3 orders rose 40% to a record USD 12bln, driven by data centre demand; revenue climbed 14% to USD 9.70bln (exp. 9.74bln), operational EBITA increased 24% to USD 2.03bln (exp. 2.0bln). ABB raised FY comp sales growth view to ‘low teens’ and announced a USD 495mln JV with Mitsubishi Electric.
• HEALTHCARE: AstraZeneca (AZN LN) and Oracle (ORCL) announced a global AI collaboration to optimise clinical trials and improve patient outcomes. GSK (GSK LN) announced that its Jemperli treatment received US FDA approval as the first and only immunotherapy for adults with MSI-H/dMMR rectal cancer.
• CONSUMER CYCLICAL: Volkswagen (VOW3 GY) and Xpeng’s (9868 HK) UNYX 08 reportedly averaged 267 monthly sales in China during April-August vs a 3,622 target. Of note for Swiss watchmakers, watch exports rose +11.7% Y/Y to CHF 2.226bln in September; exports surged to the US (+85.7%) and France (+128.2%); shipments declined to China (-14.2%) and the UK (-5.2%).
• COMMUNICATIONS: Publicis (PUB FP) reached an agreement with the US FCC regarding its acquisition of LiveRamp; the company continues to expect the transaction to close before the end of 2026. Australia is preparing legal action against Meta’s (META) Facebook and Instagram, TikTok, Snap’s (SNAP) Snapchat and Alphabet’s (GOOG) YouTube over alleged breaches of its under-16 social media ban.
• NOTABLE BROKER UPDATES: Tag Immobilien (TEG GY) initiated with Buy at Goldman Sachs. Taylor Wimpey (TW/ LN) upgraded at Goldman Sachs; Sabadell (SAB SM) upgraded at Barclays. Imperial Brands (IMB LN) downgraded at Jefferies; Weir (WEIR LN) downgraded at Morgan Stanley; Ferrovial (FER SM) downgraded at Deutsche Bank; Santander (SAN SM) downgraded at Jefferies; Telefonica (TEF SM) downgraded at Barclays; Vodafone (VOD LN) downgraded at Barclays

• DATA: In Europe, German ZEW economic sentiment is expected at 32.0 (prev. 34.7), and current conditions at -45.0 (prev. -47.1); the Eurozone ZEW sentiment gauge is seen easing to 24.2 (prev. 25.8). In North America, US September housing starts (exp. 1.31mln, prev. 1.275mln) and building permits (exp. 1.40mln, prev. 1.403mln), as well as pending home sales (prev. 0.3% M/M; prev. -4.7% Y/Y) are due. Weekly ADP employment change stats will be released (prev. 24.75K). After today’s data, the Atlanta Fed will update its Q3 GDPNow tracking estimate (prev. 3.6%).
• CENTRAL BANKS: NBH announces policy is expected to hold rates unchanged at 5.5%. BoE’s Greene speaks at the LSE Economics Society.
• SUPPLY: UK auctions GBP 4.25bln of 2036; Germany auctions EUR 1bln of 2029 Green Bobls and a 2053 Green Bund.
• ENERGY: After the US close, weekly API energy inventory data are due. WTI November 2026 futures expire today.
• EARNINGS: Notable US companies reporting today include: SpaceX (SPCX), GE Aerospace (GE), Netflix (NFLX), RTX (RTX), Intuitive Surgical (ISRG), Chubb (CB), Capital One Financial (COF), 3M (MMM), General Motors (GM), Northrop Grumman (NOC), MSCI (MSCI), United Airlines Holdings (UAL), Halliburton (HAL), Synchrony Financial (SYF), KeyCorp (KEY), Equifax (EFX), Genuine Parts (GPC), Hasbro (HAS).

European open wraps of this kind aggregate overnight flows rather than a single catalyst, and the read-through is always the same sequence: APAC handoff, commodities tone, then whether European desks follow through or fade the Asian session. Here the APAC tape failed to hold the US AI-led rebound, with chip-heavy indices lagging on higher Treasury yields and AI financing questions, a pattern that has repeatedly surfaced when crowded AI positioning meets rising real rates; the tell is whether the weakness stays confined to semis or broadens into index-level selling. The commodity block is doing the heavier lifting for the session's narrative: crude is trading on the familiar Hormuz risk premium versus actual flow recovery, where episodes of this kind historically see the premium fade unless physical disruption or shipping insurance costs confirm the threat, and the reported 80% flow recovery sits against that. On the rates side, the UK labour print beat across jobs, unemployment and ex-bonus earnings, which in past cycles of this kind has pulled gilt front-end pricing toward a slower BoE path, though the ONS's own data-quality caveat has in previous instances tempered the follow-through. Stock-specific colour is dominated by the data-centre demand chain (ABB record orders, Schneider's equity raise to fund PTC), which continues to be the distinguishing case within industrials versus the more cyclical names. Worth noting in the day ahead: ZEW, US housing data, UK and German supply, and a heavy US earnings slate, which is where the session's direction will actually be set.