Fed's Barkin (2027 voter) says he takes encouragement from recent job growth, not hard to imagine possible job losses due to AI.
- Nervous about the tails on both sides of the mandate.
- Employers outside of software are not yet reducing headcount due to AI.
- Longer-term bond-market-based inflation expectations do not look like it has broken out.
- Not leaning towards overly focusing on risks to inflation or employment.
- Does not feel like today is a time for strong forward guidance.
- Hard to reach conclusions on short- vs long-term effects of AI.
- Bond yields are still in a reasonable zone.
- Wonders if balance between supply and demand in long-term Treasury market has shifted given amount of U.S. supply.
- Businesses today are much less confident about their ability to raise consumer prices to recoup costs.
- Talked to Warsh on Tuesday but just to get acquainted; trusts him as a leader.
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