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Fed's Collins (2028 voter) still expect interest-rate cuts 'down the road' and expect PCE inflation to move above 3.5%, and year-end near 3%

Fed's Collins underscores a cautious but significant stance on monetary policy, indicating a prolonged period of holding rates while also expressing an expectation for inflation to surpass 3.5%.

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Fed's Collins (2028 voter) still expect interest-rate cuts 'down the road' and expect PCE inflation to move above 3.5%, and year-end near 3%

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  • 'Strongly supportive' of decision to hold rates.
  • Expect rates to be on hold 'for a longer period'.
  • Odds of worse inflation scenario have increased.
  • Preferred to adjust wording that signals cutting bias.
  • Alternative scenario could make Fed consider a hike.
Context
His comments point to a slight dovish tilt in the Fed's outlook, especially with a preference to signal a cutting bias. This nuanced balance suggests that while rate cuts might be anticipated down the road, the Fed remains vigilant about inflationary pressures, leaving markets to weigh the potential impacts on USD and fixed income.

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