Goldman Sachs base case puts 2027 average Brent and European TTF natural gas prices at USD 88/bbl and EUR 45/MWh, respectively

Goldman Sachs base case puts 2027 average Brent and European TTF natural gas prices at USD 88/bbl and EUR 45/MWh, respectively.

Bank research forecasts of this kind are a recurring feature of energy market commentary, and the track record of sell-side commodity calls is mixed: house views on crude and European gas have historically been most useful as a marker of where consensus positioning sits rather than as a point estimate, since the curve and option skew tend to reprice on the revisions cycle rather than on any single note. A base case anchored above or below the prevailing forward strip matters more than the absolute level, because it tells the market whether the bank is implicitly backing a tighter supply balance or fading the risk premium already embedded in deferred contracts. The two numbers carry different transmission: Brent feeds through to inflation breakevens, energy sector credit and petrocurrency flows, while TTF is a European input-cost and terms-of-trade story with read-across to EUR and regional power spreads. The distinction worth drawing is between the bank's view and the market's: where house forecasts sit persistently one side of the forwards, calendar spread and skew flows have tended to converge toward the strip rather than the research. The follow-ons are whether other houses cluster around the same level, any accompanying revisions to supply-demand balances, and how the note is framed on OPEC supply discipline and European storage trajectories.