Goldman Sachs says they continue to expect uncertainty around critical minerals tariffs to persist; expect much of the metal already in the US to remain trapped, while periodic increases in tariff risk could encourage further stockbuilding

Bank research of this kind formalises a dynamic that has recurred whenever tariff risk hangs over a physical metal market: material gets pulled forward into the jurisdiction ahead of any levy, the domestic premium over the international benchmark widens, and once inside, the metal becomes economically stranded because moving it back out forfeits the premium. The mechanism to track is the US exchange-traded premium against the offshore benchmark, since that spread is the market's running price of tariff probability; prior episodes of this kind have seen it widen on tariff headlines and compress only partially when the threat recedes, reflecting the one-way nature of the stockbuild. The distinction worth drawing is between metal already onshore, which behaves as trapped inventory and tightens the local balance, and fresh import flows, which respond to periodic escalations in tariff risk with further precautionary stockbuilding. Goldman has been a consistent voice on the metals complex, and notes framed around persistence rather than resolution tend to signal the desk sees no near-term policy clarity. The follow-ons are any actual tariff announcements or exemptions, shifts in exchange warehouse stocks on both sides of the spread, and whether other houses converge on the same trapped-inventory framing.