IEA OMR: sees world oil demand falling by 80k in 2026 due to Iran (prev. forecast for a 640k BPD rise); sees world oil supply falling by 1.5mln BPD in 2026 (prev. forecast for 1.1mln BPD rise)
SUPPLY/DEMAND
- IEA sees global oil supply exceeding demand by 410k BPD in 2026, (prev. 2.46mln BPD)
MIDDLE EAST
- IEA says crude, fuel, and NGL flows through Strait of Hormuz at 3.8mln BPD in early April (vs more than 20mln BPD pre-war)
- Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for easing pressure on energy supplies and prices
RUSSIA
- Russia may struggle to produce oil above levels seen in early Q1 due to attacks on ports
- Russia’s March crude production up to 8.96mln BPD from 8.67 mln BPD in February
- Russia’s March crude exports up by 270k BPD from February to 4.6mln BPD
Context
The IEA's latest outlook indicates a significant shift in global oil dynamics, projecting a drop in demand and an even sharper decline in supply for 2026 compared to prior forecasts. This revised demand outlook, especially influenced by Iran, coupled with reduced supply estimates, suggests tightening market conditions, which could ultimately impact oil prices, particularly through critical transit routes like the Strait of Hormuz.
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