IEA OMR: sees world oil demand falling by 80k in 2026 due to Iran (prev. forecast for a 640k BPD rise); sees world oil supply falling by 1.5mln BPD in 2026 (prev. forecast for 1.1mln BPD rise)
Importance
Level 1
SUPPLY/DEMAND
- IEA sees global oil supply exceeding demand by 410k BPD in 2026, (prev. 2.46mln BPD)
MIDDLE EAST
- IEA says crude, fuel, and NGL flows through Strait of Hormuz at 3.8mln BPD in early April (vs more than 20mln BPD pre-war)
- Resuming flows through the Strait of Hormuz is the single most important variable for easing pressure on energy supplies and prices
RUSSIA
- Russia may struggle to produce oil above levels seen in early Q1 due to attacks on ports
- Russia’s March crude production up to 8.96mln BPD from 8.67 mln BPD in February
- Russia’s March crude exports up by 270k BPD from February to 4.6mln BPD