Iran is reportedly producing ballistic missiles again, reports WSJ

The distinction worth drawing is between intelligence of this sort surfacing while hostilities are paused versus during active negotiation: in the former case it has tended to pressure the risk premium back into crude and weigh on regional assets, in the latter it has more often been read as leverage-seeking by one side or the other. Sourcing matters: unattributed official briefings on adversary rearmament have on previous occasions preceded, and at times justified, pre-emptive action, so the next tell is whether Israel or the US treats the report operationally rather than rhetorically. The established transmission is through front-month oil via supply-disruption risk on Gulf infrastructure and shipping, with the dollar bid and haven flows following the energy move rather than leading it. Worth noting that liquid versus solid propellant detail speaks to readiness timelines, which is the variable that determines how urgent any response window is assessed to be. Follow-ons are official confirmation or denial, any shift in air-defence or strike posture, and movement in freight and insurance costs on Gulf routes.