Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturers Index (Q3) 24 vs. Exp. 25 (Prev. 22)

The distinction that matters in this series is between the headline diffusion index and the forward-looking components: the outlook reading and the capex plans have tended to drive the yen and JGB reaction more than the current-conditions number, since the BoJ has repeatedly cited corporate spending intentions when framing tightening or normalisation steps. A modest miss against expectations on a rising headline has in past episodes produced only limited follow-through in USD/JPY, with the larger moves reserved for quarters where the survey shifted the perceived timing of BoJ action. Worth noting is the split between manufacturers and non-manufacturers and between large and small firms, as divergence there has on previous occasions signalled margin pressure from input costs or FX moves rather than demand. The follow-ons are the full survey detail, particularly capex and price-setting intentions, and how the print is characterised by BoJ officials ahead of the next policy meeting.