[MARKET ANALYSIS] Bond futures remain underpinned following the recent haven bid

USTs: -2.5 ticks

• Plateaued overnight after the previous day's rally, in which the 7yr and 10yr yields plunged beneath 5%, as the tech sell-off and AI concerns spurred haven demand and unwound Fed rate hike bets.

Bunds: +18 ticks

• Kept afloat after recently climbing alongside a flight-to-quality.

JGBs: +102 ticks

• Tracked the advances in global peers and approached just shy of the 127.00 level, while prices have largely ignored the latest Japanese National CPI data, which mostly matched estimates and accelerated from the previous, with headline and Core CPI both returning to above the 2.0% price target.

The sequence here is a familiar one: an equity-led risk event, in this case a tech sell-off tied to AI concerns, triggers a flight-to-quality that pulls core yields lower and forces an unwind of hawkish rate bets at the same time. Episodes of this kind have tended to follow a recognisable pattern: the initial haven bid is sharpest in the belly and long end, where duration demand concentrates, and the subsequent plateau, as seen in USTs here, is the typical pause while the market tests whether the equity weakness has follow-through or fades. The cross-market read is instructive: Bunds and JGBs tracking the move confirms a global rates correlation rather than idiosyncratic US drivers, and in such episodes the US leg usually leads with peers following at reduced beta. The JGB detail is the more telling one: prices ignoring an in-line but re-accelerating National CPI, back above the price target, is consistent with past stretches where global haven flows overwhelmed domestic data, a dynamic that historically persists only as long as the risk-off impulse does. What is worth watching is the usual set of tells: whether the equity sell-off extends into the next sessions, whether Fed pricing continues to retrace the hike premium that had been embedded, and whether the haven bid holds once the immediate flow subsides, since reversals of this kind have often unwound quickly when the triggering equity move stabilises.