[MARKET ANALYSIS] Crude benchmarks continue to extend lower, spot gold makes a fresh WTD low

In geopolitics, the US and Iran are continuing to finalise an agreement within the 60-day negotiation period. Amidst the talks, US President Trump reiterated that they are making a deal with Iran and will see how it goes. Currently, there are conflicting remarks made by US and Iranian officials. There appears to be disagreements surrounding the inspection of Iranian nuclear sites, and on potential tolling of the Strait of Hormuz. Click here for an in-depth overview.
WTI and Brent are continuing to decline, posting losses of c. 2%. This comes amidst the continued flow of ships traversing through the Strait of Hormuz, albeit still remaining far below pre-war levels. From an oil perspective, estimates suggest that around 6-7mln bpd of oil went through the Strait in the past few days (vs 20mln bpd pre-war). Elsewhere, focus has also been on comments via the Russian Deputy PM Novak, who stated that the country is mulling a diesel export ban, to help ease domestic shortages. Brent Aug’26 currently trades at the bottom end of a 75.53-77.00/bbl range.
Dutch TTF remains fairly steady, despite the Hormuz flows as focus remains on the heatwave across most of Europe. Attention has also been on French nuclear reactors, which typically need to be shut if the plant cannot cool itself efficiently. Already some EDF reactors have had to shut or taper output, but on the whole France’s national power grid operator said France has enough capacity to meet recent demand.
Spot gold continues to extend on Tuesday’s losses, and has made a WTD trough at 4,050.47/oz (vs USD 4,115/oz peak). Action which is a continuation of recent losses, stemming from the hawkish repricing at the Fed, stronger USD/higher yields and as sell-side banks continue to trim their PT for the yellow-metal. On the yield front, analysts at First Group have suggested that uncertainty surrounding the inflation outlook, alongside continued expansionary US fiscal policy, will keep US yields elevated. A factor which will act as a headwind for spot gold. Elsewhere, base metals hold a strong negative bias. 3M LME copper trades at the lower end of a USD 13,358-13,483.1/t range.