[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY gains after hawkish comments from the Fed's Waller, NOK softer after cooler Norwegian CPI

Newsquawk Staff · 10 Nov 2026, 10:05 UTC

DXY was initially softer, but now trades flat on the session within a 101.55-101.74 range. Initial pressure stemmed from falling energy prices as the geopolitical backdrop improves, but then jumped after hawkish comments from the Fed's Waller. He mentioned that further policy tightening will be needed, adding that half-point rate hike may be needed in December if October core CPI inflation comes in around 0.3% or higher. Comments come ahead of the October CPI report this afternoon, whereby the Core M/M metric is expected to print at 0.2%. Therefore, a hotter-than-expected report will likely cement a December rate hike, with money markets potentially even pricing in a chance of a larger 50bps move.
EUR/USD is flat and holds within a 1.1216-1.1239 range. The single currency remains at the whim of the USD, with little reaction seen to French Q3 unemployment falling to 8.2% (exp. 8.4%). On the central bank front, ECB's Moulin said he expects policy continuity if either Knot or de Cos takes over as ECB President.
GBP/USD is a touch lower and holds within a 1.3427-1.3458 range. BoE Deputy Governor Lombardelli said, according to the Guardian, a further 25bps hike in December is plausible, with every meeting live, but that the decision will depend on developments in the Iran conflict; little reaction was seen. UK BRC Retail Sales Monitor came in at 1.1% Y/Y (exp. 1.2%).
USD/JPY trades within a 157.85-158.16 range. Japanese Household Spending fell 6.7% Y/Y (exp. -3.1%), while the current account surplus narrowed more than expected. The BoJ Summary of Opinions showed a member saying the BoJ should raise rates when possible without becoming too cautious.
Antipodeans are mixed: NZD/USD is firmer at the top end of a 0.5622-0.5649 range, with RBNZ chief economist Conway saying the MPC agrees further rate hikes are needed. AUD/USD is softer within a 0.6909-0.6930 range, beneath its 21DMA at 0.6983, after varied Australian consumer and business surveys and mixed Chinese trade data.
NOK is softer, with EUR/NOK gradually climbing to the top of a 10.508-10.570 range after Norwegian CPI came in cooler than expected at 3.6% Y/Y (exp. 3.7%), with core CPI at 2.7% (exp. 2.8%).

What our morning note said

EU Market Open, 10 Nov, 06:50 UTC · what it led with

US President Trump said he had an excellent conversation with Qatar's PM and that US military action against Iran seems unlikely at this point; reports suggest a Qatari-Pakistani proposal has revived US-Iran negotiations.
APAC stocks traded higher as the tech rebound continued following Wall St's broad rally; European equity futures point to a positive open.

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Riksbank maintains its rate at 1.75% as expected; assesses that the probability of a rate increase later this year remains; there is considerable uncertainty and developments call for vigilance
EUR/SEK+0.3%
Norges Bank maintains its rate at 4.25% as expected; may still become necessary to raise the policy rate
EUR/NOK+0.6%
"We are interested in the diplomatic track, but without making concessions", Al Arabiya citing an Iranian diplomatic source.
WTI crude+0.8%

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