[MARKET ANALYSIS] DXY off best levels but with an upward bias ahead of US GDP and PCE, EUR awaits ECB, and AUD lags

• DXY is marginally firmer, but has slipped off best levels, and trades within a 102.06 to 102.30 range, paring some of Wednesday's losses, which came after Fed Chair Warsh's press conference lacked hawkish surprises; the Fed held rates as expected, with Hammack and Cook dissenting in favour of a 25bps hike. Focus turns to a busy US docket, including Q3 GDP, Sep PCE and weekly Jobless Claims at 12:30GMT/08:30EDT.
• EUR/USD is lower and holds towards the bottom end of a 1.1131 to 1.1161 range ahead of the ECB at 13:15GMT/09:15EDT, where policymakers are expected to hold rates at 2.50% despite elevated energy prices and inflation concerns (Full Newsquawk Preview available).
• GBP/USD is a touch softer within a 1.3303 to 1.3336 range, after marginal gains on Wednesday following the FOMC and the Autumn Budget, where the OBR raised its 2027 inflation forecast to 3.4% (prev. 2.0%) and cut its GDP growth forecast to 1.0%. Newsflow for the UK has been quiet, and the docket ahead is light.
• USD/JPY trades in a 157.60 to 158.07 range as the BoJ kicks off its 2-day meeting, where it is expected to keep rates unchanged, with focus on its language around achieving the 2% price target. Overnight, Japanese Consumer Confidence printed 35.0 (exp. 35.1), while Tokyo CPI is due tonight.
• Antipodeans are lower, with AUD/USD at the bottom end of a 0.7031 to 0.7068 range (with losses across metals not helping) and NZD/USD in a 0.5611 to 0.5637 range. RBNZ Governor Breman said chances of a December rate hike are high, after Wednesday's surprise 4-3 vote to hold, while NZ ANZ Business Confidence rose to 52.5 (prev. 51.9). Australian Import Prices fell 1.1% Q/Q (exp. +1.3%).

Sessions of this shape, a dollar bid but off its highs into a stacked US calendar, are the standard pattern when a central bank event has just passed without validating the hawkish tail: positioning pares, ranges compress, and the next data batch inherits the repricing burden. The split worth drawing here is between the dollar pairs driven by US data risk and those driven by domestic policy divergence. EUR/USD sitting at the bottom of its range into the ECB reflects the usual pre-decision behaviour: with a hold priced, the entire risk sits in the language around energy-driven inflation, and the press conference has historically mattered more than the statement for the first move. USD/JPY near the upper end of its range into a two-day BoJ meeting follows the familiar template in which an unchanged decision is expected and the currency trades on the phrasing around the inflation target, with intervention sensitivity rising as spot drifts toward levels that have drawn official discomfort in past episodes. The antipodean divergence is the cleaner story: a central bank signalling high odds of a near-term hike after a split vote is being undercut by soft metals and weak import prices, a combination that has tended to cap the currency until the rates signal is confirmed. The calendar sequence is the tell: US GDP and PCE set the dollar backdrop before the ECB lands, and Tokyo CPI into the BoJ's second day completes the picture.