[MARKET ANALYSIS] European bourses outpace their US peers, awaiting an update from the US and/or Iran

European bourses (STOXX 600 +0.7%) start Tuesday’s trade on the front foot, seemingly benefiting from Trump’s de-escalatory post. Trump announced that the US military is to hold off on the Iran attack that was initially planned for Tuesday after Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar requested him to do so, as serious talks are now taking place. However, he stated that they will be prepared to strike on a moment’s notice. The DAX (+1.5%) is the clear outperformer, while the FTSE MIB (+0.2%) lags.
Sectors highlight the positive bias. Media tops the sector pile, seemingly benefiting from continued upside in Publicis. Financial Services and Industrial Goods & Services round out the top 3 sectors. At the bottom of the pile lies Basic Resources (as precious metals pare Monday’s gains) and Chemicals.
Plenty of single-stock movers for a Tuesday: Currys (+11.1%), raises its FY adj. profit guidance; Evolution (+9.9%), announces a EUR 2bln share buyback programme; Diploma (+4.0%), raises its 2026 organic revenue growth guidance; Crest Nicholson (-2.0%), delayed HY results; Standard Chartered (-0.6%), plans to cut 15% of support staff by 2030; Vallourec (-7.1%), after ArcelorMittal sells 23.9mln shares at a price of EUR 24/shr (10% below Monday’s closing price).
US equity futures print modest declines, ES -0.1%. Despite today's modest fixed bid, yields remain elevated and continue to weigh on the tech-heavy NQ (-0.3%). Despite the relative underperformance vs Europe, analysts see this as short-term due to Europe’s lack of IT sector, which has held the region back compared to South Korea and the US.