[MARKET ANALYSIS] FX markets are rangebound with the Fed set to kick off this week's major central bank announcements

The live question is not the 25bp itself but what accompanies it; in past episodes where the move was near-consensus, the repricing came from the statement language, the projections and the press conference framing of the subsequent path, which is where front-end yields and the dollar have historically taken their cue. The dollar's current underpinnings, firm oil and higher yields, fit the established template in which energy-led terms-of-trade and rate differentials, rather than idiosyncratic USD news, carry the DXY into an event. USD/JPY back above a round number with a US official publicly defending yen intervention is the more pointed thread; episodes where intervention rhetoric surfaces ahead of a BoJ decision have tended to cap momentum rather than reverse it, with the actual decision determining whether the threat gains credibility. The Knot-for-ECB succession reports passing without reaction is consistent with form: leadership speculation moves the single currency only when it shifts perceived reaction-function continuity. Next tells are the statement's balance of risks language, the press conference tone, and then the BoJ, with UK inflation the interim data point for sterling.