[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil futures extend on gains amid geopolitical uncertainty, with Trump stating the ceasefire is on life support

WTI/Brent: WTI Jun'26 +1.0% / Brent Jul'26 +09%

• Oil prices extended their gains amid geopolitical uncertainty after US President Trump commented that the ceasefire is unbelievably weak and is on life support, but added that a diplomatic solution with Iran is still possible, while some Trump aides said he is now more seriously considering a resumption of major combat operations than he has in recent weeks. Nonetheless, gains are capped as sources familiar with the talks noted a major decision on how to proceed is unlikely to be made prior to Trump's departure for China, and it was also reported that the US released another 53.3mln barrels from the SPR.

Gold: -0.1%

• Price action is choppy following the prior day's advances across the metals complex and with participants mulling over the US-Iran impasse.

Copper: +0.2%

• Takes a breather after recent advances and amid the mixed overnight risk appetite.

Oil prices are gaining traction as geopolitical tensions escalate, particularly with Trump's comments suggesting the ceasefire status is precarious. This uncertainty is likely keeping prices buoyed as the market weighs potential conflict, though expectations of any immediate decisions appear limited until after Trump's trip to China. The overall read-through is that while prices may remain supported, they could face headwinds from market developments and the ongoing dynamics of oil supply decisions.