[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices mildly pulled back after climbing yesterday on less encouraging US-Iran headlines

WTI/Brent: WTI Dec'26 -0.6% / Brent Jan'27 -0.6%

• Oil prices mildly pulled back amid quiet pertinent overnight newsflow and after advancing yesterday as US-Iran updates were less conducive to improving relations, with US President Trump stating that they don’t need a deal with Iran, while he directed VP Vance to focus entirely on domestic issues, dampening the possibility of a Vance-Rezaei meeting. Furthermore, there were reports of explosions heard in Iran's Sirik, which sources stated were caused by warning shots fired at offending ships, although Iran's state news agency reported that the explosions were due to a military strike.

Gold: +0.9%

• Nursed some of the prior day's losses with the precious metal gaining traction on a reclaim of the USD 3,900/oz level and in tandem with the advances in silver.

Copper: +0.7%

• Gradually edged higher in an extension of yesterday's intraday rebound as the exit of Nvidia co-founder Huang and the appointment of an interim CEO removes some immediate uncertainty for stocks.

Sessions of this kind, where crude retraces part of a geopolitically-driven gain on light headline flow, have been the standard rhythm of US-Iran negotiation cycles: the risk premium builds on breakdown headlines and leaks out again when no escalation follows, with the front spreads and prompt structure doing the work rather than outright flat price alone. The distinguishing variable in past episodes has been whether rhetoric alone is driving or whether physical interference in Gulf shipping lanes is confirmed, since reported explosions and shots at vessels are the channel through which a headline premium becomes a freight, insurance, and supply premium. Rhetoric from the US side about not needing a deal has historically been treated as negotiating posture rather than policy, and reversals of this size on quiet tape tend to be fragile in both directions. Gold reclaiming a round-number level in tandem with silver fits the established pattern of the complex trading as a bloc, with the ratio and the dollar the tells rather than the metal-specific newsflow. The copper read-across from semiconductor corporate news is unusual as a stated driver and more likely reflects positioning extension of the prior session's rebound than a durable transmission. What is worth watching next is whether the reported incident in Iranian waters is confirmed as warning shots or something more, and whether any Vance-Iran contact is formally scheduled or buried, as those are the two follow-ons that have historically separated noise from repricing.