[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices pulled back after last Friday's surge and following mixed geopolitical headlines over the weekend

WTI/Brent: WTI Dec'26 -1.7% / Brent Jan'27 +1.3%

• Pulled back from last Friday's peak after surging alongside the backdrop of ongoing geopolitical risks, while weekend headlines were mixed, as there were reports of a fresh exchange of Saudi-Houthi strikes and an IRGC launcher in Sirik was hit by a missile from an unknown fighter jet after it fired a missile towards the Strait of Hormuz. Conversely, US President Trump responded to questions from a reporter and stated that there would not be a strike against Iran on Sunday, while he also commented that US-Russia-Ukraine three-way talks are to take place very soon.

Gold: -0.1%

• Trades sideways just beneath the USD 4,000/oz level as participants await this week's central bank announcements.

Copper: -0.3%

• Lacks demand amid the mostly subdued risk sentiment in Asia.

Crude reacting to weekend Gulf and Hormuz headlines is a familiar rhythm: a risk-premium spike into and out of the weekend, followed by partial retracement when the feared escalation fails to materialise. Episodes of this kind have tended to follow a set sequence, with prompt spreads and freight and insurance costs widening on the first reports of strikes near transit chokepoints, then unwinding when official denials or de-escalatory comments emerge, as with the assurance of no imminent strike alongside reports of fresh Saudi-Houthi exchanges. The distinction worth drawing is between headlines that threaten physical flows through the Strait of Hormuz and those confined to peripheral strike exchanges; the former historically sustains the premium, the latter fades it. The mixed cross-contract moves and flat gold near a round level, with copper softer on subdued Asian risk sentiment, are consistent with a market consolidating ahead of a heavy central bank calendar rather than repricing fundamentals. The tells for follow-through are whether the three-way talks materialise, any further Hormuz incidents, and whether the premium rebuilds into the next weekend, a pattern that has recurred through prior geopolitical risk cycles.