[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil rebounds amid geopolitical risks after the US military was ordered to be ready for a possible resumption of strikes on Iran, but with no final decision made, while copper rallies as its largest buyer returned from a week-long absence

Order-to-be-ready headlines on Iran without a final decision sit in a familiar category: the premium that builds on military preparedness tends to fade if no strike follows, and to convert into a durable repricing only when supply infrastructure or Hormuz transit is actually threatened. The distinction that has mattered in past episodes is between strikes confined to military targets, which have produced short-lived spikes, and anything touching export capacity, freight or insurance, which is where the move has historically stuck. The added wrinkle here is the reported election-timing framing, which gives the story a defined calendar window and keeps the tail alive through that period rather than letting it decay on the usual headline half-life. Gold edging up on a fading dollar is the standard co-movement rather than an independent geopolitical signal. The copper rally is a separate mechanism entirely: Chinese return from a week-long holiday reliably produces catch-up buying at the Shanghai open, and the strength of that first session back has often set the tone for LME trade over the following days. Worth watching is whether crude holds the rebound once the military-readiness story goes quiet, and whether Chinese copper demand persists beyond the post-holiday restock.