[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are contained following post-FOMC selling

Post-FOMC sessions of this kind tend to resolve into one of two patterns: either a one-way repricing that extends as positioning adjusts, or a contained consolidation while the market digests the statement and waits for the press conference narrative and the data calendar to confirm.

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[MARKET ANALYSIS] Dollar takes a breather and holds on to post-FOMC spoils

South Korea and France staged joint air drills to enhance interoperability

[MARKET ANALYSIS] T-note futures are contained following post-FOMC selling

[MARKET ANALYSIS] Oil prices are contained after retreating yesterday on supply-side headlines, while gold partially rebounds from its post-FOMC drop

Russia conducts extensive missile attacks on Kyiv, according to Fars News Agency

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USTs: +1.5 ticks

  • Price action is range-bound after the prior day's FOMC-triggered selling pressure and curve flattening.

Bunds: -16 ticks

  • Clawed back some of the losses seen in the aftermath of the Fed as the recent pullback in energy prices eases inflationary pressures, while there were also comments from the German Economy Minister that it would be sensible to reduce VAT on fuel from 19% to 7%.

JGBs: - 1 tick

  • Lacks direction in the absence of any tier-1 data and with the BoJ kick-starting its 2-day policy meeting.
Context

The range-bound trade here fits the second, with the prior session's curve flattening doing the heavy lifting and follow-through selling absent. The cross-market read is worth separating: the Bund bid has a domestic driver beyond the Fed echo, with softer energy feeding the inflation channel and the German VAT talk adding a fiscal easing angle that typically supports duration at the margin, so the outperformance is not purely a rates-beta move. JGBs sitting flat into a two-day BoJ meeting is the usual pre-decision stasis, with direction historically set by the outcome and the guidance rather than by offshore cues in the interim. The follow-ons are any second-day spillover from the Fed across the long end, whether the Bund bid holds once the energy impulse fades, and the BoJ statement as the next discrete catalyst for the global duration complex.

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