US President Trump says Iran war will end soon because Iran cannot go on and it is going to be a really good conclusion

The established caveat is that such remarks have historically preceded outcomes that diverge from the rhetoric, since this President has form for announcing imminent resolutions that take longer, or arrive on different terms, than initially framed. The distinction worth drawing is between rhetoric that moves the front of the oil curve and the freight and insurance costs around Gulf transit, which reprice quickly on sentiment, and any actual cessation, which is what durably removes the supply-risk premium. The tells are follow-through on the ground: shipping and insurance rates for the Strait of Hormuz, any corroborating statements from Tehran or mediators, and whether energy infrastructure remains untouched. Absent confirmation, prior episodes of this kind have tended to see the initial risk-on move partially retraced as the gap between words and events becomes apparent. The cross-asset expression in comparable de-escalation episodes has been softer Brent and WTI, weaker gold and JPY, and a bid in equity indices, with the dollar's response depending on how much of its move had been haven-driven.